Bears Have Suddenly Become an OVER Bettor's Dream

Chicago Bears QB Justin Fields has enjoyed a breakthrough with their offense over the last three weeks, scoring on more than 53% of their drives.
Chicago Bears QB Justin Fields has enjoyed a breakthrough with their offense over the last three weeks, scoring on more than 53% of their drives. / Mike Dinovo-USA TODAY Sports

As a Bears fan, I've spent 30-plus years of my life occasionally laying awake in bed wondering what it might like to have a modern-day offense with a game-changing quarterback under center.

As a matter of fact, the Chicago Bears, one of the original franchises of the National Football League, has never had a 4,000 yard or a 30 touchdown passer in the history of the organization!

So perhaps this adds some much-needed context to why watching Justin Fields and this team operate on offense over the past three weeks is unlike anything that's ever been seen before from Bears fans and bettors.

Win/loss record aside, Chicago football is adapting before our eyes, and the rest of the NFL, as well as Vegas is still in the early stages of catching up.

The Bears Offense Leads the League in a Positive Stat For Once

Chicago is scoring at will on their opponents over the past several weeks, putting themselves in an elite category of NFL offenses from Weeks 7-9.

Via Rich Hribar of Sharp Football Analysis, the Chicago damn Bears have the highest scoring percentage in the league on their drives the last three weeks of the season.

As a result, the OVER has hit for Chicago in their last three games overall, as well as their specific team total for points scored. That in turn has led to a heavier increase in plays run, leading to more opportunities on offense to punch it in for six.

Is the Bears' Newfound Success Sustainable?

Before Week 7, the Bears' offense wasn't a complete trainwreck, but it appeared to be headed way off the rails.

Chicago was running the ball effectively, but couldn't protect their second-year quarterback, and was running for his life to avoid an onslaught of pass rushers. As a result, according to The Athletic's Aaron Reiss, Fields' dropback passing rate in Weeks 1-6 was 55.2% based on TruMedia's metrics. Now, it's down to 42.9%; the lowest number in the NFL.

The new changes have helped make Fields a much better quarterback as a passer as well, despite the notion that quarterbacks must remain in the pocket to be most effective. Fields' off-target throw rate was up to 21.7% the first six weeks. Over the last three, it's down to 11.4%.

Bears' Improved Offense, Justin Fields' Development is Noticed by Vegas

Chicago is back at home in Week 10, hosting the Detroit Lions at Soldier Field as a 3-point favorite at home after opening up at -1.5 on Sunday evening.

In addition to the number moving towards Chicago by a point in a half in less than a day, the total has soared from where it opened at 45 on the lookahead line. When the lines closed up when both teams were in action Sunday, it re-opened again at 46.5, only to be bet up back up to 48.5 as of Monday afternoon.

The Bears' moneyline over were two of my first Week 10 NFL bets of the week. If the weather holds up in Chicago for next Sunday, don't be surprised to see this total continue to climb.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.