Bears vs. Jets Prediction and Odds for NFL Week 12 (New York's Defense Will Seal the Deal Against Chicago)

Nov 20, 2022; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New York Jets defensive end John Franklin-Myers (91)
Nov 20, 2022; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New York Jets defensive end John Franklin-Myers (91) / David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

It's Week 12 of the NFL season and the New York Jets are still well within the playoff hunt.

In fact, they'd only miss out on a playoff berth via tiebreaker if the regular season ended today. Even with that being the case, there's a quarterback controversey with Zach Wilson and Joe Flacco. After a 10-3 loss to the New England Patriots in Week 11, head coach Robert Saleh told media that on Monday that he's not committing to Wilson as his starting QB for their Week 12 matchup against the Chicago Bears.

So, what does that mean from a betting perspective? Let's take a look at the latest odds and then I'll give you my best bet.

Bears vs. Jets Odds, Spread, and Total

Bears vs. Jets Betting Trends

  • Bears are 5-0 ATS in their last five games against Jets
  • Bears are 1-6 straight up in their last seven road games
  • The OVER is 5-0 in the Bears last five games
  • Jets are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games
  • The UNDER is 5-0 in the Bears' last five games
  • The UNDER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between these two teams

Bears vs. Jets Prediction and Pick

Whether it was a reaction to the market, or the announcement that Joe Flacco may be starting in place of Wilson on Sunday, the Jets have already moved from 3.5-point favorites to 4.5-point favorites.

I agree with the move, and I like the Jets to cover in this game. It's strange to say this about the Bears, who have had a top 10 defense for decades, but their defense is amongst the worst in the NFL and should be faded at all costs.

The Bears rank 24th in opponent yards per play, allowing 5.8 yards per snap. They've also allowed 6.0 yards per snap over their last three games, which is ranked 26th amongst all teams during that time frame.

Meanwhile, the Jets defense has been a dominant unit, which is a big reason for the question marks surrounding the quarterback position. They rank fourth in opponent yards per play, allowing just 4.8 yards per snap.

More importantly, they rank sixth in opponent yards per carry, which will go a long way in stopping the Bears dominant rush attack.

I don't know if I'd rather Flacco or Wilson to start on Sunday, but what I do know is that I'm more than willing to bet on New York's defense to get the job done.

You can track Iain's bets on Betstamp here.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.