Bellarmine vs. Duke Prediction and Odds for Monday, November 21 (Can Knights Cover?)

Duke Blue Devils head coach Jon Scheyer.
Duke Blue Devils head coach Jon Scheyer. / Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports

Jon Scheyer and the Duke Blue Devils are 3-1 on the 2022-23 season, and they’ll face a frisky mid-major team in the Bellarmine Knights on Monday night. 

All three of Duke’s wins this season have come by at least 27 points, with the lone loss coming to the defending national champion Kansas Jayhawks. 

Bellarmine sits at 2-2 on the season with losses to Clemson and Morehead State, although the team kept the games close. The Knights also upset Louisville as a 9.5-point underdog in their season opener. 

Led by Kyle Filipowski and Jeremy Roach, the Blue Devils are looking to carry the legacy of Coach K into the Scheyer era. As major favorites on Monday, do the Blue Devils dispose of another inferior opponent?

Here are the latest odds: 

Bellarmine vs. Duke Odds, Spread and Total

Bellarmine vs. Duke Prediction and Pick

Duke is top-20 in the country in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency this season, which is certainly going to make things tough on the Knights, who lack the size to deal with Filipowski and Ryan Young down low. 

However, the Knights don’t turn the ball over, ranking 36th in the country in turnover percentage, which will be key if they want to stay in this game.  

I know the Blue Devils have a talent advantage, but I actually think the Knights keep this game within 23.5 points. 

Bellarmine plays at an extremely slow pace, ranking 358th in the country in adjusted tempo. Slowing it down and avoiding turnovers won’t allow the Blue Devils to run and use their superior athleticism as much in the open floor. 

KenPom has this projected as a 22-point win for Duke, and in that case the Knights would cover. I’ll side with Bellarmine on Monday. 

Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.