Belmont Stakes Odds, Post Position, Longshot Pick, Prediction, Exacta and Trifecta Picks
The most grueling leg of the Triple Crown horse races has arrived and we have some intriguing names to bet on, including the morning favorite at the Kentucky Derby who was a last-minute scratch.
No horse is gunning for a triple crown, but I’m gearing to win my second bet in a row on the ponies after sprinkling some money on National Treasure in the Preakness.
I don’t see National Treasure getting a second win in a row here, however, but I do have two horses I really like, including my Kentucky Derby winner pick, who finished third in that race.
Below I have a full breakdown of the Belmont including my prediction, a longshot winner pick and how I plan on betting the exacta and trifecta.
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Back to the picks.
How to Watch Belmont Stakes TV Channel, Time, Date, Location
Location: Belmont Park, Elmont, NY
Date: June 10, 2023
Time: Coverage begins at 4 PM ET. Post time is 6:50 PM ET.
TV Channel: FOX
How Long is the Belmont Stakes
The Belmont Stakes is the longest race of the triple crown, clocking in at 1.5 miles. That means the horse that wins needs speed and stamina. Having a favorable post position helps as well. The closer to the rail, the less you have to run. Speaking of post positions…
Belmont Stakes Post Position and Odds
Post Position | Horse | Odds |
|---|---|---|
1 | Tapit Shoes | 20-1 |
2 | Tapit Trice | 3-1 |
3 | Arcangelo | 8-1 |
4 | National Treasure | 5-1 |
5 | Il Miracolo | 30-1 |
6 | Forte | 5-2 |
7 | Hit Show | 10-1 |
8 | Angel of Empire | 7-2 |
9 | Red Route One | 15-1 |
Belmont Stakes Longshot Pick
The heavy hitters have shown up for the Belmont, with aforementioned Preakness winner National Treasure, the highly-touted Forte and the favorite Tapit Trace leading the charge. But it’s Angel of Empire who’s got my attention as a potential long(ish)shot pick to win this race.
Angel of Empire was my pick to win the Derby and he would have done so if the track was a bit longer - or he had a better start. He was closing on Mage down the stretch and just ran out of real estate. That won’t be an issue here.
He had an astounding 104 Beyer Speed Figure at the Derby and had a 97 figure in a dominant win at the Arkansas Derby in April. After skipping the Preakness, Angel of Empire should be fresh for the Belmont, which is critical.
Only two Preakness winners have gone on to win the Belmont and 12 of the last 15 horses that finished in the money had at least four weeks in between races. Rest matters here.
The only reason I’m not breaking the bank on Angel of Empire is his starting position. It’s much better to be close to the rail at the Belmont and only seven horses have won this race in its history from the 8 spot.
Still, I will be betting on Angel of Empire to win as well as win, place, show knowing he has the speed and stamina to compete.
Belmont Stakes Prediction
I’ve already revealed I like Angel of Empire and don’t like National Treasure in this race, which really only leaves two logical picks left: Tapit Trice and Forte. I say logical because I don’t see any of these high longshots winning against this trio of superior studs and Tapit Trice and Forte have favorable post positions and trainers.
Todd Pletcher is the trainer of both Tapit Trice and Forte and he has a history of success here, having won five titles previously including last year. Irad Ortiz Jr. was the winning jockey on Mo Donegal in last year’s Belmont and he returns on the back of Forte this time around. Tapit Trice is ridden by Luis Saez, who won the 2021 Belmont aboard Essential Quality.
Tapit Trice certainly has a big advantage in post position and I’d say their jockey situation is equal as well. If these two are leading going down the stretch, it wouldn’t be a surprise.
The biggest difference to me is Tapit Trice was an absolute disaster at the Derby, getting blown out of the gates and never recovering. It’s speed rating at that race was 95.
While Forte hasn’t raced since April 1 following the late scratch from the Derby, he is a more consistent horse, getting clocked at a speed between 102-99 in all of his last five races. Those races were all wins too, three of which were Grade-1 wins.
Forte got a lot of hype heading into the Derby and I see him living up to it in this race. I’m not fading Tapit Trace completely, but between these two I lean toward Forte. I still like Angel of Empire to win too but my power rankings go: Forte, Angel of Empire, Tapit Trice.
Belmont Stakes Exacta and Trifecta Picks
Based on the above power rankings, I will mix in those three horses into my exacta and trifecta picks. The only horse I would consider adding to the tail end of the trifecta is hit show. He finished fifth at the Derby and has consistently gotten faster this year. His finished speed at the Derby indicates he could be a closer.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.