Belmont vs. Vanderbilt Prediction and Odds (Don't be Fooled by Regular Season Records)

The Belmont Bruins suffered a brutal upset in the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament by Morehead State in the semifinals. They entered as five-point favorites and ended up losing 53-51. The loss prevented them from playing in the title game against Murray State and possibly earning an automatic bid into the NCAA Tournament. The Bruins are one of the better teams in the NIT and finished the year with a 15-3 conference record.

Vanderbilt, on the other hand, was never expected to make a run in the SEC Tournament and secure a bid to the show. But, they ended up beating Georgia and Alabama before eventually losing to Kentucky. That was enough to secure a bid in the NIT. Here are the odds for this opening-round matchup, courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.

Belmont vs. Vanderbilt Odds, Spread, and Total

Spread:

• Belmont +3.5 (-110)
• Vanderbilt -3.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

• Belmont +145
• Vanderbilt -175

Total: 147 (Over -110/Under -110)

Belmont vs. Vanderbilt Prediction and Pick

This is a tricky game to predict. On the one hand, Belmont on paper looks like the stronger team and they certainly had a better season. Yet, Vanderbilt is an SEC team and on a bit higher of a level than a 15-3 team out of the OVC. The Bruins played just one game against an SEC opponent this year and were rocked by LSU 83-53 as 6.5 point underdogs. Coincidentally, Vanderbilt beat LSU by nine just a few weeks ago as 2.5 point underdogs.

While these comparisons aren’t all that telling they do put into perspective the difference of skill between a great OVC team and a bad SEC team. Vandy is also a team that has been through the wringer and ended the year with the 32nd hardest schedule in the nation according to Kenpom. Belmont ranked 198th in that metric.

Additionally, the Commodores had a very strong end to their year, at least from an ATS standpoint, with an 11-2 record against the spread to end the year. This is a case of a game where we have to overlook some of the H2H stats for each team and realize that Vanderbilt had a much harder schedule. And, despite their woeful record, are a better team than the Bruins and should find a cover tonight. 

Pick: Vanderbilt -3.5 (-110)