Bengals vs. Patriots Prediction and Odds for NFL Week 16 (Respect New England's Defense)

Dec 12, 2022; Glendale, Arizona, USA; New England Patriots defensive tackle Daniel Ekuale (95)
Dec 12, 2022; Glendale, Arizona, USA; New England Patriots defensive tackle Daniel Ekuale (95) / Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

The Cincinnati Bengals are the hottest team in the NFL, not just in the standings, but from a betting perspective as well. They're a league-best 11-3 against the spread this season.

Now, they'll head to Boston to take on the New England Patriots, who are reeling from one of the most embarrassing finishes to a football game of all time.

So, how will the two teams fare when they meet in Week 16? Let's dive into the odds and then I'll give you my best bet.

Bengals vs. Patriots Odds, Spread, and Total

Bengals vs. Patriots Betting Trends

  • Bengals are 6-0 straight up and ATS in their last six games
  • The UNDER is 13-6 in the Bengals' last 19 games
  • Patriots are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against Bengals
  • Bengals are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games
  • Bengals are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games against AFC opponents
  • The UNDER is 5-2 in the Patriots' last seven games
  • Patriots are 17-3 straight up in last 20 games against AFC North opponents
  • Patriots are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games as underdogs

Bengals vs. Patriots Prediction and Pick

There could not be a better buy low spot on a team than one who just lost on a lateral play when the game is tied. This Patriots bet makes such little sense, that it actually makes so much sense in the world.

Believe it or not, the Patriots outrank the Bengals in net yards per play. The Patriots are 8th, Bengals are 11th. Now, when you take everything into consideration, I’m not going to make the argument that the Patriots are the better team, but I do think the Patriots are worth a bet as 3.5-point home underdogs.

People aren’t giving the Patriots defense the respect it deserves. Everyone is focused on Mac Jones and the offense, but their defense is 5th in opponent yards per play.

Also, watch out for the New England pass rush. Bengals offensive line has beem much improved compared to the start of the year, but this is a VERY good pass rush, ranking third in the NFL in sack percentage, taking down the opposing quarterback on 9.21% of their drop backs.

Also 8th in opponent yards per pass attempt. I think they can largely keep the Bengals offense in check.

Obviously the question remains of whether or not their offense can keep up, but based on all the numbers, I think the value lies in the Patriots at home.

You can track Iain's bets on Betstamp here.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.