Betsided

Bengals vs. Steelers Prediction and Odds for NFL Week 11 (Fade Pittsburgh Regardless of Tomlin Home Dog Record)

By Ben Heisler

Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin is a remarkable 17-3-3 ATS as a home underdog over his career with the Steelers.
Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin is a remarkable 17-3-3 ATS as a home underdog over his career with the Steelers. / Philip G. Pavely-USA TODAY Sports
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The moment oddsmakers opened Mike Tomlin's Pittsburgh Steelers at just under a 3-point home underdog following their Week 9 bye to the New Orleans Saints, both sharp and casual bettors knew where this game was going to go.

In T.J. Watt's return to action off a pectoral injury, the Steelers held the New Orleans Saints to just 10 points, doubling them up 20-10. The upset win at for Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin puts him at an insane 15-8 straight up, and 17-3-3 as a home underdog since 2007.

This week, they'll welcome a division rival in the Cincinnati Bengals to town, as Joe Burrow and company come off a Week 10 bye. The Bengals beat the doors off the Carolina Panthers in their last game in Week 9 on the road, highlighted by running back Joe Mixon accounting for five total touchdowns.

Taking down a struggling Saints team at home is one thing, but can the Steelers cover for the second straight week at home?

Let's go through the opening odds ahead of next Sunday's late afternoon showdown.

Bengals vs. Steelers Odds, Spread and Total

Bengals vs. Steelers Betting Trends

  • Cincinnati is 6-3 ATS in 2022, tied with four other teams for the best ATS record in the NFL
  • Since 2007, Mike Tomlin is 71-58-5 ATS vs. the AFC North at home, but just 6-6-1 since 2021.
  • Bengals have gone 8-0-1 to the UNDER in their last nine games vs. the AFC, and 3-0-1 in their last four games vs. AFC North opponents
  • Steelers are 7-1 to the UNDER in their last eight games at home, 4-1 vs. the AFC North

Bengals vs. Steelers Prediction and Pick

I get why the Steelers at +4.5 would be the trendy, and even the logical pick. Home dogs, especially in division games tend to do awfully well ATS. Heading into Week 10, home underdogs were 30-23-3 so far this season, and Mike Tomlin's sample size over 15 years indicates he's the best of the best.

And yet I still can't get there and take Pittsburgh this week. Here's why.

If you and I know the trends about the Steelers, so do the oddsmakers, and despite a fresh reminder from merely days ago, they still have that baked into the current number of 4.5 - 5 depending on the book. It's also, according to Jay Morrison of The Athletic, the largest spread in Bengals' history in which they have been favorites in Pittsburgh

The Bengals looked like they figured out one of the big concerns with their struggling offensive line in Week 9, as Joe Mixon ran wild, and Joe Burrow looked as comfortable in the pocket as he had all season. T.J. Watt will reek havoc, but with Mikah Fitzpatrick projected to be out, that's another key piece of Pittsburgh's defense unavailable to slow down one of the most potent offenses in the league.

They're rested, well-coached and also have revenge on their mind, falling 23-20 to these same Steelers at home in Week 1.

WIth a three week stretch including this week, next week in Tennessee, and then on the road vs. the Chiefs in an AFC championship game rematch, Cincinnati has to have this one and I'll buy them both to cover and moneyline it.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.