Best Against the Spread Bets for NFL Wild Card Weekend
One of the best weekends of football is here, NFL Super Wild Card Weekend!
There may not be as many games as a regular season weekend, but we have six unbelievable matchups with each team's Super Bowl dreams on the line.
If you're looking for a few bets to place for this weekend's action, you've come to the right place. I'm going to break down the three best spread bets to wager on for the upcoming slate.
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Wild Card Weekend Spread Bets
- Dolphins +4.5 vs. Chiefs
- Packers +7.5 vs. Cowboys
- Buccaneers +3 vs. Eagles
Dolphins vs. Chiefs prediction and pick
If you read this week's edition of the "Road to 272 Bets", you'd know that the Dolphins is my favorite spread bet of the weekend. Here's a portion of why I love this pick:
"Everyone likes to talk about the Dolphins' dynamic passing attack, and for good reason, but not enough people recognize how good they are at running the football. They lead the NFL in yards per carry (5.1) and rank fifth in both Rush EPA and Rush Success Rate. They gained a blistering 5.6 yards per carry against the Chiefs in their regular season meeting.
"That could be the key to success for them this weekend. As good as the Chiefs' defense is, they struggle to stop the run. They're 24th in opponent yards per carry (4.5), 28th in opponent Rush EPA, and 17th in opponent rush success rate.
"I don't care the weather is supposed to be cold in Kansas City on Saturday night, that's already been baked into the line. There's one side that has better metrics, an arguable stylistic advantage, and also getting more than a field goal worth of points. Give me that side 10 times out of 10."
Pick: Dolphins +4.5
Packers vs. Cowboys prediction and pick
The Packers and Cowboys will face off in the Sunday late-afternoon showdown and Peter Dewey wrote in his betting preview why he liked the Packers to cover as underdogs.
"Dallas’ dominance at home is well known, but let’s not sleep on the Packers as an underdog, as they’ve gone 6-4 in that spot this season.
"The Cowboys’ opponents at home haven’t exactly been the toughest – they’ve played the three NFC East teams (including when Philly was struggling to end the season), the Seattle Seahawks, Los Angeles Rams, New England Patriots, New York Jets and Detroit Lions at home.
"The team was the beneficiary of a controversial call against Detroit to keep a perfect record at AT&T Stadium.
"While I think it’s going to be tough for Green Bay to pull off the upset, the team’s offense has really come on over the final few weeks, climbing to eighth in the NFL in yards per play. Dallas is No. 6 in that category.
"I expect this game to see plenty of points with a beatable Green Bay defense (20th in yards per play allowed this season), but don’t sleep on the Packers to keep this within a touchdown. The team has just three losses by more than four points this season." - Peter Dewey
Buccaneers vs. Eagles prediction and pick
Shelby Dermer wrote his betting preview for the Wild Card edition of Monday Night Football between the Buccaneers and Eagles. Here's a snippet of why he liked the Buccaneers:
"Hurts, Brown and Smith being banged up is bad news for the Eagles. Tampa Bay’s defense is vulnerable against the pass (29th in the NFL), but will Philadelphia’s weapons be available? If the Eagles have to turn to their ground game, it spells trouble against a Buccaneers’ defense that ranks fifth in the NFL against the run.
"Fans could have been in line for a shootout with how poor both of these defenses are against the pass, but injuries have put that in question. As he’s done throughout his career, expect Mayfield to gut it out against a Philadelphia defense that has been shredded in recent weeks.
"The Eagles rank 31st in the NFL against the pass and Tampa Bay’s weapons are healthy with veterans Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, White out of the backfield and tight end Cade Otton.
"What about this Eagles team gives you confidence to lay a field goal on the road? Take the Buccaneers as a home underdog." - Shelby Dermer
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
You can check out all of Iain's bets here!