Daily Dinger: Best Anytime Home Run Picks for World Series Game 3 (There's Real Value on J.T. Realmuto)
Baseball fans and bettors alike had to wait an extra day for Game 3 of the World Series to shift over to Philadelphia with the Houston Astros and Philadelphia Phillies tied 1-1.
The Phillies' handed the Astros their first loss of the postseason back in Houston in dramatic fashion Friday night, coming back from a 5-run deficit on the road with the Astros' best starter on the mound in Justin Verlander.
Houston responded in Game 2 with a brilliant start from Framber Valdez, as the Astros got to Phillies' Game 2 starter Zack Wheeler early on for his worst outing of the postseason.
Before we dive into our favorite anytime home run picks for Tuesday evening, let's first take a look at the latest odds for Game 3.
So far, we've seen a handful of balls leave the yard in the series, with Alex Bregman of the Astros being the only one to do it in Game 2 at just over 4/1 odds. Who can get a hold of one at Citizens Bank Park in Game 3 tonight?
Here are our favorite plays on the board, along with the best odds available to bet them!
Don't forget, you can follow along in our team standings all season long HERE!
Best Home Run Picks Today
Bryce Harper (+390)
Bryce Harper comes off a hitless game in Game 2 of the World Series, but had two hits in Game 1 and has been the best hitter in all of baseball in this year’s postseason.
Now with the series shifting back to Philly, I love Harper’s chances of going deep against Lance McCullers Jr., who was roughed up by a putrid New York Yankees offense in his last postseason start.
Harper already has five homers this postseason, so at +350 or better, I’m comfortable taking a shot on him Tuesday night. – Peter Dewey
Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.
J.T Realmuto (+700)
The popular plays for Phillies' dinger bets tonight are likely to go towards their left-handed mashers in the aforementioned Bryce Harper, or Kyle Schwarber at the top of the lineup.
The issue, however, is McCullers thrives off facing lefties, and really struggles in his reverse splits against right-handers at the dish.
Over his career, McCullers has his best strikeout numbers on the road vs. left-handed hitters; whiffing 28.8% of the batters he faces. Against right-handers on the road, he's an entirely different pitcher: only punching out 22.2% of hitters.
There's one batter this postseason in Philadelphia that's not only locked in at the plate, but also meets the criteria of putting up better numbers vs. right-handers than lefties, and that's catcher J.T. Realmuto.
He hits third in the order ahead of Bryce Harper, and with McCullers not wanting to put anyone on base ahead of one of the best in the game, this could be a dream-spot scenario for him to take one out in the most favorable of his splits. - Ben Heisler
Follow all of Ben's betting plays in real-time HERE!
Kyle Schwarber (+350)
Schwarber has a hit in both games of the World Series, but he hasn’t hit one deep yet. With the way his bat was swinging in the NLCS, I expect him to wake up and charge up the Phillies faithful with a dinger.
The Astros send Lance McCullers Jr. on the mound today, and that can be a good thing for Schwarber. McCullers Jr. gave up a home run in his last time out against the Phillies. Maybe history repeats itself and Schwarber gets on the board. – Donnavan Smoot
You can find Donnavan Smoot’s full betting record here.
Jeremy Peña (+390)
With Ranger Suarez set to start Game 3 of the World Series after it was originally rained out on Monday night, let’s take a look at some Astros hitters who can smash lefties to hit a home run.
The player I’m taking a look at is the ALCS MVP, Jeremy Peña. His slugging numbers increase from .402 against righties, up to .493 against lefties, and we all know how strong his postseason has been.
He got a hit in each of his first two games of the World Series, so his bat hasn’t gone cold. It’s time for him to hit a dinger. – Iain MacMillan
You can track Iain's bets on Betstamp here.
Yuli Gurriel (+870)
Gurriel isn’t known for his power, but at over 5-1 odds I have to take a stab giving his fine marks against lefty pitching, who we will see at least once in Ranger Suarez.
He has a .268 batting average against southpaws with a slugging percentage of .441. In the hitter friendly Citizens Bank Park, I expect we see Gurriel out perform his middling power marks of just eight home runs.
Track all of Reed's bets at Betstamp HERE!
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.