Best Bet for Dolphins vs. Bills on Thursday Night Football (Trust Josh Allen?)

Obviously, this is a huge divisional game for both teams so early in the season.  The winner will basically have a two-game lead over the other.  Each team is overly familiar with the other. 

It’s a short week and not a lot of data to analyze.  Let’s first look at the tale of the tape.

Bills vs. Dolphins Key Stats to Know

• Total Offense - Yards per game: Fins sixth at 400 / Bills are 12th at 352.

• Points per game: Fins 17th at 20 points per game / Bills 3rd at 34 per game.

• Passing yards per game:  Fins first at 319 / Bills ninth at 222.

• Rushing yards per game:  Fins 26th at 81 / Bills 14th at 130.

• Total Defense - yards per game:  Fins 11th at 267 / Bills 13th at 270.

• Points allowed per game:  Fins t7th at 17 points per game / Bills 24th at 24 per game.

• Passing yards allowed per game: Fins ninth at 139 / Bills 11th at 146 per game.

• Rush yards allowed per game: Fins 18th at 128 / Bills 17th at 124.

• Turnover Margin:  Fins t9th at +1 / Bills t11th at 0

• Total sacks:  Fins t7th with 3 / Bills t3rd with 4.

INDIVIDUAL STATS (Miami/Buffalo)

• Passing: Tua Tagovailoa ranks 1st in passing yards, t9th in passing TDs, and 8th in passer rating.  The Bills’ Josh Allen ranks 10th, t3th, and 3rd in those categories.

• Receiving: Tyreek Hill ranks t5th in reception yards, t2nd in receptions, and t4th in TDs.  Bills’ top receiver FSU rookie Keon Coleman ranks 37th, t41st, and t33rd in TDs. 

• Rushing:  Jeff Wilson, Jr. ranks t50th in rushing yards.  Bills’ running back James Cook ranks 15th in rushing yards.

HEAD-TO-HEAD STATS

Fins offense vs. Bills defense.  This early in the season, it’s hard to gauge the true identity of each team’s defenses. Last week, the Bills defense hardly resembled last year’s as it gave up 28 points to the Arizona Cardinals. The Dolphins offense awoke late and looked like it’s old self for the last 17 minutes of their win over Jacksonville.  I gave the Bills D the edge the last time the two teams met but it might take the Bills D a couple of games to right its ship. Advantage: Edge Fins.

Fins defense vs. Bills offense.  This match-up resembles the above head-to-head whereby the offensive unit seems in sync, but the defensive status is uncertain.  History has shown the Dolphins defense’s inability to stop Josh Allen and the Bills offense, and until they do I have to side with Buffalo.   Advantage: Bills.

Kicking game.  Normally, this match-up always favors the opposition. On the punting side, Miami’s Jake Bailey had his best game as a Dolphin averaging nearly 50 yards per punt (gross) and 49 net including three inside the 20. Bills punter Sam Martin averaged 42.5 gross.

On the kicking side, we all know Jason Sanders hit the game winning field goal from 52 yards out and made two of his three kicks.  Bills kicker Tyler Bass hit both of his two field goal attempts. I need to see if Bailey’s results are an outlier or an improvement.  Advantage: Even

Key injuries.  As of this writing, the Dolphins running backs are a bit banged up and it’s unclear if either Raheem Moster or De’Von Achane will play.  Neither practiced Tuesday. Return man Malik Washington also did not practice. On the Bills side, it appears Josh Allen’s hand is ok, and he is highly likely to play. Starting cornerback Taron Johnson and defensive end Dawaune Smoot did not practice.  Advantage Even.

Intangibles.  Last season, home teams went 11-6 on Thursday night games and 8-9 against the spread. The Fins have the home field advantage, but that hasn’t meant much in this match-up.  The Bills have won 13 of the last 15 meetings between the two teams.  That’s a pretty big intangible.  Advantage Bills.

The Betting Pick: Miami vs. Buffalo (+1.5). 

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

The Fins are currently favored by 1.5 points.  To me, this is an even game but until Miami can prove it can beat Buffalo, I have to side with the Bills.  Bills 24 Fins 23.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.