Best Bets For Diamondbacks vs. Giants: Joc Peterson Returns to San Francisco

One bet on the total in Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants and one player prop for Joc Pederson's return to the bay.
Best Bet Diamondbacks vs. Giants: Joc Pederson Returns to San Francisco
Best Bet Diamondbacks vs. Giants: Joc Pederson Returns to San Francisco / Christian Petersen/GettyImages
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The Arizona Diamondbacks and San Francisco Giants kick off a four-game series tonight at Oracle Park in San Francisco. This will be the first of 13 games these two MLB division rivals will play this season.

The Diamondbacks have gone 9-10 to open the year, whereas the Giants have gone 8-11. Both of these teams have played six straight days and have played many close games. Their high-leverage bullpen arms have been getting a lot of work which is going to make picking a side difficult in this one.

To start the game on the mound, we will see Giants righty Logan Webb, who has a respectable 3.80 earned run average (ERA). In the bottom half of the inning, the Diamondbacks will counter with their young right-hander Ryne Nelson, who has struggled so far, posting a 5.27 ERA. The combination of hittable starting pitching and tired bullpens is a recipe for runs.

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Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants Best Bet

  • Game Total OVER 8.0 Runs (+100)

On the surface, Logan Webb has respectable numbers, but he has had luck on his side, considering he has given up five hits in all four starts this season and has an expected ERA of 5.20. Webb ranks in the bottom five percent of pitchers in Whiff%, which won't match up well with these Diamondbacks hitters, who have struck out at the fifth-lowest rate in the MLB over the last ten days.

On top of that, the Diamondbacks have drawn the most walks in the MLB over that same stretch and have scored three or most runs in four of the last six games when facing Webb. This selective approach at the plate could get Webb's pitch count up if he struggles to put hitters away with two strikes as he has in the past.

The Diamondbacks' offense also averages 5.58 runs per game on the year and 5.67 per game over their last three. Coming into this game, left-handed hitters are hitting .405 off of Webb. With Ketel Marte and Corbin Carroll at the top of the lineup, this is an advantageous spot for the Diamondbacks' offence.

On the other hand, Ryne Nelson has had a 5.29 ERA since the start of last season with the Diamondbacks. So far this season, he has some wild reverse splits as right-handed-batters are hitting .364 against him compared to lefties hitting just .208. What is interesting, though, is that the lefties have a .500 slugging percentage against Nelson compared to the righties, who slug .485.

This could run Nelson into trouble, considering the Giants have some good left-handed power bats mixed in with quality right-handed hitters.

There is a good chance we will have both starters done fairly early in the game, allowing these hitters to face tired bullpens. Both have an ERA of over 4.40 over the last 10 days. With both offences in advantageous spots and both bullpens struggling, I think we will see more than eight runs scored tonight.

Bonus Prop: Joc Pederson OVER 0.5 Home Run (+800)

Pederson will be suiting up for the first time in more than two years against the Giants after spending the last two seasons in San Francisco. He has hit a home run in his last two games and has an extra-base hit in three of his last four games.

At this price, it could be worth sprinkling on Pederson, who is swinging a hot bat in his first game since leaving his former team.


Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.