Best Bets for NBA Christmas Day (Target Total in Mavericks vs. Suns)

Dec 20, 2023; Dallas, Texas, USA;  Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic (77) reacts after injuring his
Dec 20, 2023; Dallas, Texas, USA; Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic (77) reacts after injuring his / Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

The NBA's biggest day of the regular season takes stage on Christmas Day with five games to choose from with the league's most well known faces on the floor.

There are plenty of betting angles to take for the Christmas Day card, including how to bet the spread in the Denver Nuggets vs. Golden State Warriors game, but totals will take center stage at night as the two primetime games between the Philadelphia 76ers and Miami Heat as well as the Dallas Mavericks and Phoenix Suns.

Keep reading for some of our favorite bets on the loaded Christmas Day slate. You can also stock your sports betting account with a no-sweat first bet with Caesars Sportsbook! Sign up with the link below to become eligible to have your first bet matched up to $1,000!

Best NBA Bets for Christmas Day

  • Nuggets (-7) vs. Warriors
  • 76ers vs. Heat UNDER 226
  • Mavericks vs. Suns OVER 237.5

Nuggets vs. Warriors Prediction and Pick

The Nuggets are well positioned to outpace the Warriors at home in this matchup, one that will put Draymond Green's absence (suspension) on full display.

Nikola Jokic has routinely dominated the Warirors, averaging nearly 28 points, 13 rebounds and 10 assists over the last two seasons, but the team won't have its best defender to slow down Denver's two-man game between Jokic and guard Jamal Murray. The Nuggets will likely spam this action as the Warriors frontcourt rotation is down to Kevon Looney and Dario Saric, both two are too slow footed to deal with the vaunted PNR.

On the other side, the Warriors offense is reliant on shooting it well from the perimeter. Outside of Stephen Curry, the team lacks the ball handlers to get to the rim and create offense. Denver has emerged as a top 10 defense in terms of points per 100 possessions by its ability to dictate the pace and limit team's three-point chances, fourth in three pointers allowed per game.

I believe Denver is in a good spot to win and cover on Christmas afternoon.

PICK: Nuggets -7

76ers vs. Heat Prediction and Pick

Our Peter Dewey is on the under in this primetime Christmas day matchup between two postseason contenders.

Miami plays at one of the slowest paces in the NBA (26th), and now it’s taking on a Sixers team that is without its best player in Embiid who is averaging 35.0 points per game. 

It’s not easy to make up for that scoring, and seven of the last eight games between these teams have fallen short of this number. 

With Bam Adebayo back, Miami’s defense should improve going forward, and the UNDER has hit in 14 of 29 Heat games this season. 


Mavericks vs. Suns Prediction and Pick

These are two of the biggest OVER teams in the league this season, Dallas going over in 19 of 29 games and the Suns going over in 16 of 28, and I see no reason to get off the bandwagon now.

Both of these teams bolster some of the best scorers in the league with Luka Doncic on the Mavericks side, the engine behind the league's eighth best offense in terms of points per possessions.

Meanwhile, the Suns have Kevin Durant and Devin Booker. while the unit hasn't played too much together due to injuries, the offense has been the best in the league when the two share the floor. In 369 minutes together, the Suns offense is scoring more than 123 points per 100 possessions, nearly two points better than the league's best offense.

Count on points in the night cap between two of the best offenses.

PICK: OVER 237.5

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.