Best bets to Make and Miss the New-Look College Football Playoff

Sportsbooks thrive off of availability of information. They know exactly what to do with it to generate accurate projections, which of course can be converted into value on their end. However, sometimes they don't own as much as an informational edge as they'd prefer, and that's where we as bettors can find an edge.

This season's new College Football Playoff market creates such an opportunity, as the sportsbooks have never seen the Selection Committee tackle selection for a 12-team field, nor have they seen teams approach seasons and games with the knowledge that there is, in fact, margin for error.

Of course, we haven't seen it either, but in general, that lack of available information will bring us closer to the sportsbook's level, as it weakens the strength of their predictive models.

The other key twist, other than the much larger field, is the automatic qualification afforded to the champions of the Big Ten, SEC, ACC and Big 12, as well as the top-ranked champion from the other five conferences. The effects of these new factors will be challenging to project, but let's do our best dive into some picks to make or miss the playoff given the new format.

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

2025 College Football Playoff Make or Miss Best Bets

Utah to Make Playoffs (+250)

There might be no bigger beneficiaries of the changes to conference alignment and the playoff format than the Utes. They get to move from a brutal Pac-12 to a very soft Big 12, which loses Texas and Oklahoma, and will be armed with the knowledge that winning said conference comes with an automatic top-four seed in the playoff bracket and a first-round bye.

Utah's odds aren't much shorter than theirs to win the Big 12, which could be another way to invest in them, but it may be worth giving yourself a bit of a cushion in case they go 12-0 and lose their conference title game.

This team should feature something close to the conference's most competitive defense, and the offense should bring more to the table than it did in 2023 with standout quarterback Cameron Rising on the way back from a year-long injury.

Kyle Whittingham is arguably the best coach in the Big 12 upon arrival, pairing with Rising to give Utah a great leadership core as they look to take over their new conference.

Michigan to Miss Playoffs (-110)

To be completely frank, the Wolverines are probably priced even this favorably to make the CFP due to the name recognition the program always holds paired with the sentiment generated by its dominant 15-0 national championship season in 2023. There's plenty of talent still in Ann Arbor, and Sherrone Moore is an extremely worthy successor to Jim Harbaugh, but there might just be too much to replace.

The offensive line will be essentially all new starters, and the receiving corps will lack experience outside of tight end Colston Loveland. Running back Donovan Edwards hasn't had many sustained stretches of solid play, and presumptive quarterback Alex Orji is entirely unproven.

The defense should still be one of the country's best, but the offense will have little time to settle in;

Michigan plays an elite Texas team in Week2, and then USC in Week 4.

In addition to those two brutal home games, the Wolverines will later host a phenomenal Oregon squad, as well as take road trips to Washington before the regular season finale against conference presumptive favorite Ohio State.

Michigan might play really good football again this year, but the schedule is just too tough; expect 9-3 for this team rather than the double-digit wins that would likely be needed to secure a playoff spot.

Ole Miss to Make Playoffs (-130)

The Rebels are huge winners as well when it comes to playoff expansion, even if conference realignment will provide some challenges. This team is one that frequently hangs out inside the top 10, but has a really tough time rising to the very top of the SEC, which was usually needed to make the four-team playoff.

Ole Miss doesn't necessarily have a better chance to win the SEC this year than any other year, the fact of the matter is that they just don't need to.

This year, even in an improved SEC, expect the Rebels to at least crack double digit wins. Other than a game against Georgia, the Rebels could very well be favored every week, with a home game against Oklahoma and a road trip to LSU as the only fixtures that really stand out as challenges.

Lane Kiffin and his staff crushed it in the transfer portal this offseason, bringing in the likes of stud d-lineman Walter Nolen and Florida edge rusher Princely Umanmielen and LSU back Logan Diggs, all of whom should fill previously-existing holes really nicely.

With key players like QB Jaxson Dart and his top wideout Tre Harris back, expect Ole Miss to come out firing once more.

Alabama to Miss Playoffs (-130)

Like Michigan, Alabama is running on name recognition. The post-Saban era is going to be very different, and there could certainly be an adjustment period, especially as some new faces come into the conference.

Speaking of those new faces, the Tide will have to go visit one of them this season; they'll be traveling to Oklahoma for a very tough road game. In fact, Alabama's schedule is pretty terrifying overall; Wisconsin on the road will be an early test, and immediately after that one comes a visit from Georgia. Alabama has additional visits to LSU and Tennessee, and between those is sandwiched another tough home game against Missouri.

Simply put, there's not enough breathing room for Kalen DeBoer and his team, which has lost a lot of talent to the transfer portal in the wake of Saban's retirement, to gel and become their best selves.

This team experienced plenty of hardship early on last year, but righted the ship quickly against inferior competition; with a tougher schedule and without their legendary coach, don't expect such strong in-season adjustments if the Tide struggle to start the year.

Penn State to Make Playoffs (-130)

Penn State, a bit like Ole Miss, has been much-maligned for being good but never the best. However, there are a couple reasons to believe that the major changes to the sport could help them out in a big way. Let's talk about the stereotypical "disappointing" PSU season in the James Franklin era. It ends with a 10-2 regular season record, with losses to Michigan and Ohio State and wins over everyone else.

For starters, Penn State doesn't have to play both of those teams anymore; they won't see Michigan this year, for instance. But much more importantly, a 10-2 season with a couple of stumbles is probably good enough for a team from one of the "Power Two" conferences to get into the playoff.

Expect Penn State to attain that exact record, but feel a whole lot better about it than they have in years past. They probably still can't beat Ohio State, even at home, and a road trip to USC should be a tall task, but wins over West Virginia, UCLA, Wisconsin and Washington, as well as a Purdue team that could surprise some people, should help fill out a solid enough playoff resume.

LSU to Miss Playoffs (-120)

This one is challenging to figure out.

LSU is losing Heisman-winning quarterback Jayden Daniels, its top running back, and top two receivers from a team that already failed to make it to 10 wins in the regular season, and are once again playing a challenging schedule. The Tigers also trotted out one of the worst defenses in all of Power Five last year, and did little to improve it.

USC is a tough neutral-site opener, and UCLA will be far from a free win, making up a tough non-conference slate. Within the SEC, it's no easier; Ole Miss, Alabama, and Oklahoma are all coming to Death Valley, while trips to Florida and Texas A&M could be tricky to navigate given their proximity to those challenging home games.

This figure might be the best example of the challenges sportsbooks are having in terms of creating efficient lines for this market. It's not likely that we'll see more than four SEC teams in the playoff, and it's hard to see this version of LSU distinguishing themselves within the conference, let alone the nation. If two losses is in fact the allowable margin of error, we could see the Tigers fall out of serious contention in the first month or two of the season.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.