Daily Dunk: Best College Basketball Bets Today (Florida, Illinois Sides to Bet in Marquee Matchups)

College basketball best bets, tips and predictions for Tuesday, March 5.
Florida Gators guard Walter Clayton Jr. (1) dribbles during the first half. The Florida men   s
Florida Gators guard Walter Clayton Jr. (1) dribbles during the first half. The Florida men s / Doug Engle/Ocala Star Banner / USA TODAY
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The final week of college basketball brings us plenty of high level matchups as each team gets ready for conference tournament play.

All eyes will be on a pair of games in the 7 p.m. EST window, with Alabama set to play a high scoring affair with Florida while Illinois hosts Purdue in a game that should be able to put up a similar point total. However, I'm eyeing the side in these two matchups -- keep reading to see how I'm playing.

Lastly, can North Carolina take care of business ahead of its Tobacco Road rivalry game on Tuesday, or can a surging Notre Dame team cover a big number on the road?

Here's my best bets for Wednesday's matchup:

College Basketball Season Long Record: 137-119-6 (+10.87U)

Best College Basketball Bets Today

  • Notre Dame (+15) vs. North Carolina
  • Alabama vs. Florida ML (-125)
  • Purdue vs. Illinois ML (-125)

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Notre Dame vs. North Carolina Prediction and Pick

Notre Dame is trending up down the stretch of the conference season under first year head coach Micah Shrewsberry. It may have taken a bit, but it appears that the Irish are far more formidable after some more reps in Shrewsberry's deliberate system.

The Irish have won five of six games, including over the the likes of Wake Forest and Clemson at home, and now take its top 25 defense according to KenPom on the road to face North Carolina.

The Tar Heels are still trying to regain its National Championship contender form after suffering a drop in level. Since the Duke win on Feb. 3, the Tar Heels are 5-2, still very good, but have won two by double digits and have struggled to pull away from opponents as the team's leaky perimeter defense has begun to regress to the mean.

UNC is still outside the top 300 in ShotQuality's open 3 rate, and the Fighting Irish are 36th in 3-point rate on the year.

Further, Notre Dame plays at an incredibly slow tempo, elite at forcing teams to play in the half court. UNC has seen its offense drop off when it can't run. The Tar Heels are outside the top 300 in half court play rate, and Notre Dame's ability to make this game a grind can keep the visitors within the number.

While the Tar Heels have made up for some of its shot making concerns (the team is 10th in effective field goal percentage) with an elite rebounding front court, Notre Dame is third in ACC defensive rebounding percentage.

If this game becomes a half court battle, I'm eyeing Notre Dame's recent form holding up and a competitive effort from Shrewsberry's group.

PICK: Notre Dame +15

Alabama vs. Florida Prediction and Pick

The Crimson Tide have traded wins and losses over the last four games, and the team's unreliable defense makes them an untrustworthy bunch. The team's play is even more concerning on the road, where the team ranks 352nd in away from home rating.

The Crimson Tide's defense sees an incredible drop-off on the road, on display in a 20-point loss to Tennessee in January, an 18-point loss at Auburn in early Februray and a 22-point loss at Kentucky a few weeks back.

Alabama is now in Gainesville to face Florida, who gave the Crimson Tide a run for its money at Coleman Coliseum a few weeks back, losing in overtime.

I believe there's a clear path to success for Florida in this one that results in a home win. The Gators have a ton of size, typically deploying two-big lineups and do a good job of playing drop coverage that challenges the Crimson Tide's offense that is centered around only 3-point shots or shots at the rim.

The Gators will contest 3s at a high clip and funnel Alabama into the the likes of Tyrese Samuel around the rim, where Florida is 36th in field goal percentage allowed at the rim.

It also doesn't help that it appears that the Crimson Tide won't have wing Latrell Wrightsell Jr. available yet again after seemingly having a setback in his hopes of returning from a concussion.

Meanwhile, Alabama's defensive rebounding issues may be exposed here. Florida is top 10 in the country in offensive rebounding rate while Alabama is 10th in SEC defensive rebounding rate.

Florida should get even against the Crimson Tide, I'll lay the small price.

PICK: Florida ML (-125)

Purdue vs. Illinois Prediction and Pick

A late Illinois rally in the first meeting made this a tight affair, but I believe the team can put together a full 40 minutes against the Boilermakers on Tuesday night on the heels of Purdue's Big Ten title-clinching victory on Saturday. It's worth noting that Terrance Shannon Jr. wasn't on the floor in that one, but will be on Tuesday night.

These are the top two offenses in the Big Ten, but the Illini's ability to initiate contact and get to the free throw line is going to put Edey in foul trouble and keep him off the floor, which will open up the paint for a rim-running Illini offense to get going.

Illinois is 26th in field goal percentage at the rim, according to Haslametrics. While many teams are afraid of going in on the Boilermakers (the team is 28th in average shot proximity), the unit is 245th in field goal percentage allowed at the rim.

While both offenses shoot well from the perimeter, Purdue may be due for a serious setback. The Boilermakers are owed a six percent drop in 3-point percentage, per ShotQuality. The Illini have proven to be a disciplined defense, 75th in open 3 rate, running teams off the 3-point line and into their formidable frontcourt.

Can the team slow down Edey and the wings around him to score a win?

Both offenses are elite while each defense has concerns, but I believe given the context of this Tuesday night meeting, the Illini can set the tone in hopes of scoring a signature win ahead of the Big Ten Tournament.

PICK: Illinois ML (-125)


Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.