Best College Basketball Bets Today for Final Four (Bet Villanova and Duke to Cover)

We are here, the final weekend of college hoops of the season. So let's close strong.

There are four blue chip programs battling it out to cut down the nets in New Orleans at the Final Four with Kansas and Villanova doing battle for the second time in four tournaments and arch rivals Duke matching up with North Carolina in Mike Krzyzewski's swan song.

How should we bet them? I got you. Here are my two game previews as well as three bets I have on the Final Four matchups.

Odds courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook:

Column Record: 121-130 (14.1 Units)

Villanova (+4.5) vs. Kansas

Let's start with the big news around this game: Villanova guard Justin Moore suffered an Achilles injury in the final minutes of the team's Elite 8 victory over Houston. He will predictably be out for this game, generating a ton of line movement in this game. Has the shift in market been too much?

With or without Moore, Kansas' defense can be had. The team may be 17th in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom, but is 47th in ShotQuality's adjusted defensive efficiency, meaning that the team's allows good looks to opponents and should be much worse than their record indicates.

KU doesn't force turnovers (191st in turnover rate) and is fine on the defensive glass (159th in DREB%). Gillespie can create efficient looks for this offense against a leaky defense that has been ripe for regression all Tournament.

Moore's loss will hurt on the perimeter against a sweet shooting Kansas team, but the Jayhawks don't allow a ton of 3's to begin with, 74th lowest opponent 3-point rate this season, and the Wildcats can use their inverted offense with Gillespie in the post to take advantage of the Jayhawks backcourt and finish inside. While Nova isn't a big team by any means, it does matchup well against a small frontcourt rotation of David McCormack and Mitch Lightfoot given their matchup zone defense that keeps teams outside the paint.

The Wildcats may have been middling on the glass this season, but they showed they are more than capable of hanging on the glass against an elite rebounding team in Houston on both sides of the floor.

I'm not concerned about Villanova's top 10 offense finding answers on that side of the ball, but I still believe this line is an overreaction because of the stark contrast in styles.

Kansas wants to run, as it posted the 40th fastest average possession length in the country, but Nova put up the ninth slowest. The team is excellent at limiting transition opportunities and if they are able to force the Jayhawks into a half court grind, I'll be happy to have Villanova with the points.

If Wright and the Cats find a way to slow this game into a half court matchup, they can stay within this number. Yes, the loss of Moore is significant, but with Nova's deliberate pace and excellent game planning from Wright, I'm going to lean towards them being a valuable underdog considering there will be a low amount of possessions and I'm not confident in the KU defense exposing the loss of Moore.

Most advanced metric sites pegged the Jayhawks as a 1-point favorite, including KenPom and Haselmetrics. Even if we factor in that the Wildcats closed as 3-point underdogs to Houston in the Elite 8, I don't believe that Kansas is 1.5 points better than the Cougars nor that Moore is worth more than 1-point.

Let's look at the other side, with Kansas closing as 6-point favorites against Miami in the Elite 8. Miami and Villanova sans Moore are not separated by 1.5 points, thus leading me to a bet on the Big East Champs.

Further, I mentioned the deliberate pace of Nova and how they will look to slow this game down. The team does run a very short rotation, so the loss of Moore is going to hurt in some fashion, but I think we see the Wildcats execute on their terms early before Kansas adjusts. With limited possessions, in a football stadium (which always helps unders), I'll lean towards the 1H Under as well.

PICK: Villanova +4.5 (2U), play to +4,1H Under 61.5

Duke (-4) vs. North Carolina

While I was skeptical of Duke's prospects of making a Final Four run, we have seen them play at their absolute best, a level that can't be matched by the remaining field.

The Blue Devils never had to worry about talent, but they did have issues executing on both sides of the ball during the course of the season, but in wins over Michigan State, Texas Tech and Arkansas, we saw Coach K's team put it all together and look like the National Championship contender they were supposed to be.

As for this matchup, North Carolina has thrived by crushing foes on the offensive glass and from the perimeter. The Blue Devils have the size to match Armando Bacot on the glass and also allow the 51st lowest 3-point rate in the country. So, can the Tar Heels find offense inside? The team is 128th in 2-point percentage over the past month.

On the other side, I'm going to side with the overwhelming talent of Duke that can score both inside and out around Paolo Banchero. While Banchero has become a monster in isolations situations, leading to Duke becoming the No. 1 offense in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency rating, the play of Jeremy Roach and A.J. Griffin off of the likely top 3 pick will be huge as well. Roach has scored in double figures in all but one game this tournament (9 in the Elite 8 win over Arkansas) and dished out five assists twice. Roach has done a great job of facilitating the offense thus far, and the Blue Devils are posting the 13th highest effective field goal percentage since March 1st

North Carolina loves to gang rebound and create second chances, but that can be a problem against a Duke club that can match the Tar Heels' size on the glass. If UNC fails to win on the offensive glass, the Blue Devils elite transition attack can take over.

Coach K's team is elite at finishing at the rim and can also generate second chances of their own with their size. Duke center Mark Williams is going to be key on Bacot on both sides of the floor, but I'm going to side with Duke's perimeter threats to outlast the outlier shooting of the Tar Heels during this tourney. The Tar Heels is shooting 35% from deep on 113 tournament 3-point tries.

I've hinted at it, but I like Duke to cover in this game. I see them as a team that has realized their potential, but also undervalued given the season long spreads this season.

The first meeting closed with Duke -3.5 on the road, and then -11 at home in Coach K's final home game that had some increased home court advantage factored in. Yes, UNC won that game, and went on a huge run in the tournament as a No. 8 seed, but how much are we upgrading the Tar Heels, and how much are we overlooking Duke's March success?

If you take out 4 points for home court from the last game between the two, you have Duke at -7. This game will be highly competitive between two conference foes, but I think the Blue Devils are being undervalued in the betting market given the closing spreads of the two teams and the ceiling of this roster compared to their arch rivals. I can see them pulling away at the free throw line late and covering.

PICK: Duke -4 (3U)

Get all of BetSided's Final Four Best Bets Here!

You can find all of Reed's bets HERE!