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Daily Dunk: Best College Basketball Bets Today (How to Bet Virginia vs. Virginia Tech and Kansas State vs. Texas)

College basketball betting preview, prediction and best bets for Monday, Feb. 19 featuring Virginia and Virginia Tech.

By Reed Wallach, Shelby Dermer

Feb 17, 2024; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Virginia Cavaliers guard Reece Beekman (2) drives to
Feb 17, 2024; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Virginia Cavaliers guard Reece Beekman (2) drives to / Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
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As is expected after more than 100 games on Saturday, there's a limited college basketball slate on Monday.

However, there are plenty of high level matchups, including Virginia and Virginia Tech battling for ACC positioning while Kansas State takes the trip to Austin to Texas. I'm eyeing both games as my favorite bets as part of Monday's best bets.

With a limited slate, we'll also hit on one of the "extra games" on the docket!

Let's get to the bets for Monday:

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Best College Basketball Bets Today, February 19th

  • Virginia vs. Virginia Tech 1H UNDER 59.5
  • North Carolina Central +7 vs. Norfolk State
  • Kansas State +9 vs. Texas

Virginia vs. Virginia Tech Prediction and Pick

While this game is set to be a tight one between two rivals, I'm most intrigued by the total, which is set in the mid 120's.

Virginia Tech has played with a bit of pace this season, top half of the ACC, but the unit is built around its motion offense that emphasizes the 3-point shot. The team is shooting north of 37% from beyond the arc on the third highest 3-point rate, but the group is going to struggle against the length of the Woos packline defense that ranks as a top 10 defense in terms of KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency.

UVA slows games to a crawl, playing at the slowest tempo in the country. The offense is methodical as it hunts for the best shot, and the team is shooting a blistering 40% from distance in ACC play, likely offsetting it's rough offense that struggles to score inside (141st in field goal percentage at the rim this season, per Haslametrics).

Both teams can shoot, but I believe this game is going to have such few possessions that we see a limiting scoring output for each team in the first half. With Virginia's slow offense, and the length to disrupt Pedulla on the perimeter, Virginia Tech is 12th in ACC turnover percentage, this game can be clunky early.

Further, these games are typically lower scoring. There is a ton of familiarity between Mike Young's offense with Virginia Tech and Tony Bennett's packline scheme of Virginia and on the opposite side of the floor.

In seven games since Young took over in 2020, these two teams have played eight times with the average first half total clocking in 50.3. While players change over time, the schemes are tied closely to the respective coaches, so I believe there is a bit of predictive power here.

I'll count on limited possessions and scoring opportunities for both teams, sending this under the total. -- Reed Wallach

PICK: 1H UNDER 59.5

North Carolina Central vs. Norfolk State Prediction and Pick

These two teams engaged in a defensive slugfest earlier this season with NC Central pulling out a 60-58 win on Jan. 8. In that matchup, both teams shot less than 36% from the field and combined to go 7-of-43 from downtown. Thirty-three points were on free throws alone. It’s shaping up to be a similar matchup on Monday. 

Both of these teams are led by slightly below-average defenses while the offenses struggle. This is a matchup of the two defensive scoring leaders in the MEAC with Norfolk State giving up just 67.4 points per game and NC Central allowing 67.7. On the offensive end, NC Central is No. 287 in KenPom and Norfolk State is No. 265. 

Both of these offenses rely heavily on free throws. NC Central is No. 315 in the nation in 3-point shooting and No. 239 from inside the arc. Norfolk State is No. 299 in effective field goal percentage and struggles to protect the rock. The Spartans are No. 308 in turnover percentage and NC Central is above-average (No. 115) at creating takeaways and No. 106 in steal percentage. Norfolk State is just 2-6 ATS as a favorite this season and 1-5 ATS as a home favorite.

The Spartans just don’t have the offense to win with margin, especially against a defensive-minded NC Central squad looking to climb into first place. In a projected low-scoring bout, take the points. -- Shelby Dermer

PICK: North Carolina Central +7

Kansas State vs. Texas Prediction and Pick

Texas has struggled in the role as favorite all season long while Kansas State has done a fine job of hanging tight both at home and on the road.

The Longhorns are a poor 5-12 against the favorite as a favorite this season. The team's defense has slid to 10th in Big 12 play in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom and the offense has struggled to protect the ball, now ninth in terms of Big 12 turnover rate.

The Kansas State defense, meanwhile, ahs emerged as a top flight unit in the league. Despite a floundering offense, the defense is holding teams to the lowest effective field goal percentage in the conference, ahead of the likes of Houston and Iowa State.

The Longhorns are reliant at getting inside and finishing around the rim, but Kansas State has been elite in that regard. Texas is 18th in field goal percentage at the rim, while K-State bolsters a top 15 rim protection defense in the nation.

Lastly, keep an eye on Texas' poor transition defense. Kansas State isn't aggressive in terms of pushing pace, but the offense is efficient in the open court, scoring the 13th most points per possession according to ShotQuality. That's notable against a Texas team that is 344th in points allowed per possession in transition and is constantly vulnerable off of misses and turnovers. -- Reed Wallach

PICK: Kansas State +9

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.