Daily Dunk: Best College Basketball Bets Today (How to Bet Friday's Round of 64 Action)
By Reed Wallach
The March Madness action continues on Friday with the second half of the Round of 64.
There are 16 more games to chew on starting in the afternoon, and I'm eyeing the middle of the day with a bet on Colorado vs. Florida and Texas A&M vs. Nebraska in the Round of 32. Can KJ Simpson and the Buffaloes continue their NCAA Tournament run against the Gatos? Plus Wade Taylor IV looks to do the same for the Aggies.
Here's how I'm betting the second day of the tournament.
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Best College Basketball Bets Today
- Colorado (+1.5) vs. Florida
- Texas A&M (PK) vs. Nebraska
Colorado vs. Florida Prediction and Pick
Colorado advanced out of the First Four, and I like the team's chances to advance yet again against Florida.
The Buffs battled through mid season injuries to get into the "Big Dance" and the team showcased some of its talent in Dayton, wiht guard KJ Simpson and forward Tristan Da Silva combining for 39 of the team's 60 points to get past Boise State.
While Florida has more firepower than Boise State, the team's defense is a bit of a concern, especially without backup big man Micah Handlogten. The Buffs are a rim running offense that likes to get inside, but the team is exploited by turnover issues at times, 262nd in turnover rate. However, that won't be a problem against Florida, who is 319th in turnover percentage on defense.
The Gators defense leaves a ton to be desired in plenty of facets, including its inability to contain the three-point shot, 232nd in open three rate according to ShotQuality. However, the offense may have some flaws as well. UF is top 10 in offensive rebounding rate, but the Buffs have the size with Da Silva and TCU transfer Eddie Lampkin to limit the Gators ability to generate second chances, 29th in defensive rebounding rate.
Florida has a few more holes in its profile, and I think this matchup suits up for the more balanced Buffs to advance.
PICK: Colorado +1.5
Texas A&M vs. Nebraska Prediction and Pick
This is a brutal draw for the Cornhuskers, who will face a Texas A&M team that is the best offensive-rebounding team in the country. Considering the Aggies are one of the worst shooting teams in the country (345th in effective field goal percentage per KenPom), the team's ability to generate second chances is massive. Further, the team is top 50 in the country in free throw rate as the likes of Taylor and Tyrece Radford are always generating foul calls and making games into half-court battles.
Looking at the Cornhuskers profile, the team is outside the top 200 in defensive rebounding rate after playing in the Big Ten. While the defense ranks third in adjusted defensive efficiency since February 1st according to Bart Torvik, I'm skeptical of this matchup with the Aggies' ability to offset some of the Cornhuskers' strengths.
On the other side of the floor, Nebraska may struggle against the morphing zone defense that Buzz Williams deploys. Texas A&M runs a zone on about 13% of its possessions, holding teams to a 39% field goal percentage in that sample, but could up that given Nebraska's numbers against zone defenses.
Fred Hoiberg's bunch has only seen zone defenses 3% of its possessions (an incredibly small sample), but shot just 32% from the field.
Given the fact that Texas A&M can generate second chances and overwhelm Nebraska on defense with changing defensive schemes, I believe the edge lies with the Aggies to advance in this coin-flip matchup.
PICK: Texas A&M PK
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Track Reed's bets here!