Daily Dunk: Best College Basketball Bets Today (How to Bet New Mexico vs. San Diego State)
It's a condensed slate of college hoops on Friday before we feast on more than 100 games on Saturday, but that doesn't mean we don't have opinions on the card.
New Mexico vs. San Diego State is the marquee matchup of the Friday night set of games, but our betting expert is also eyeing the Harvard vs. Cornell matchup to start the night. Get ready for Friday night hoops with our best bets for the card.
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Best College Basketball Bets Today
- Harvard vs. Cornell (-8.5)
- New Mexico (+6.5) vs. San Diego State
Harvard vs. Cornell Prediction and Pick
In the first meeting between these two teams Feb. 3, Cornell pulled away in the second half for an 89-76 win. The Big Red shot 52.5% from the field and, despite Harvard shooting 52.6%, forced 17 turnovers by the Crimson.
Both defenses struggle, but Cornell has been fantastic in creating takeaways this season, ranking No. 58 in KenPom in turnover percentage and No. 41 in steal percentage.
They’ll face a Harvard offense that likely won’t shoot over 50% from the field as a team that is No. 222 overall on that side of the ball and is one of the worst free-throw shooting teams (No. 282) in the country. Cornell’s defense doesn’t rebound well, but that’s not a category Harvard should take advantage of as the No. 298 offensive rebounding team in the country.
Cornell has shot over 50% from the field in three of its last four games, including the first matchup with Harvard, and should get plenty of quality looks against a Harvard defense that is No. 203 overall and No. 197 against 2-point shots.
The Big Red is the best offense in the nation in 2-point shooting (63.9%) and you should back the Big Red in a bounce-back spot coming off its two-point loss to Yale. -- Shelby Dermer
New Mexico vs. San Diego State Prediction and Pick
In a non surprising development, a popular home favorite has taken a ton of money with a lot of situatoinal angles pointing towards the hosts. The Aztecs, who opened as a four-and-a-half point favorite, are now laying six-and-a-half in a game that closed wiht the Lobos favored by three-and-a-half a month ago.
These teams are roughly equal on a neutral, but the idea of getting San Diego State at home, who are 10-0 and have won every game by at least 11 points, is too good to pass up for bettors, but oddsmakers are making you pay for it.
KenPom has this game listed as SDSU -5, Bart Torvik and Haslametrics are each short of -4, so again, this is a severe tax you are paying without much justification.
Yes, Donovan Dent rolled his ankle on the final play of the Lobos thrilling win against Nevada, but I believe that there is way too much artificial steam on this game. Dent, while impactful, is worth more than a point to the spread, if he is even out (x-rays came back negative).
New Mexico was able to out-pace San Diego State with on its homecourt back on January 13th, and I believe the team can have success once again. The Lobos don't take many three's, preferring to get into the teeth of the defense with ball screens. SDSU plays drop coverage which will have the likes of LeeDee shutting off the rim for either Mashburn, Jaelen House or Dent (if he plays), but this has been a pressure point for the Aztecs defense all season.
New Mexico ranks 117th in points per possession in the pick-and-roll, per ShotQuality, running it at a top 50 clip. Meanwhile, SDSU has been cooked in this action all season. The Aztecs defense is 320th in points allowed per possession while gaurding the PNR.
Both teams offenses should put up numbers in this one, I find both interior defenses a bit overrated, each are outside the top 300 in points allowed per possession, but the difference is that New Mexico has the guard play to get inside, 33rd in finishing at the rim frequency and 15th in average shot proximity.
Meanwhile, San Diego State is far more comfortable settling for mid-range shots, 32nd in that metric, but New Mexico is 44th in field goal percentage allowed on mid-range shots, per Haslametrics. Further, the Lobos Mountain West leading turnover percentage can give the Aztec ball handlers fits, a group that is ninth in terms of protecting the ball in league play.
This is all to say that these two are fairly equal, but there are clear avenues to New Mexico keeping this close. Instead of paying an insane premium to get the home favorite, I'll take the discount on the road underdog. -- Reed Wallach
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Track Reed's bets here!