Best College Basketball Prop Bets for Alabama vs. UConn (Stephon Castle's Impact Leads to Player Prop Value)
By Reed Wallach
UConn and Alabama meet on Saturday in the Final Four in what’s expected to be a high scoring affair.
With a total in the 160’s and two of the three best offenses in the country, UConn and Alabama are primed to give us some player prop value to the over, namely Huskies big man Donvan Clingan, but also some unders with Grant Nelson in a disadvantageous situation on the other side.
Here’s three player props I’m eyeing for this Final Four showdown:
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Best College Basketball Prop Bets for Alabama vs. UConn
- Donovan Clingan OVER 15.5 Points
- Stephon Castle OVER 4.5 Rebounds
- Grant Nelson UNDER 15.5 Points + Rebounds
Donovan Clingan OVER 15.5 Points
Despite his impact on the court, it doesn’t always manifest itself in the box score for the sophomore big man Clingan.
However, that wasn’t the case on Saturday in UConn’s Elite Eight blowout win against Illinois, scoring 22 points, grabbing 10 rebounds and blocking five shots. I envision Clingan filling it up again in the Final Four against a lackluster Alabama frontcourt.
The Crimson Tide struggle to defend the rim, 110th in field goal percentage allowed at the cup, and also have an opponent free throw rate that is outside the top 300 nationally. I believe the Huskies will look to attack on the interior against the foul prone Crimson Tide and that will feature plenty of usage for Clingan and free throw tries that can help send this over.
Stephon Castle OVER 4.5 Rebounds
Castle’s usage continues to go up, and he played a key cog role in the UConn victory on Saturday in the Elite Eight, particularly staying close to Terrence Shannon Jr. and cleaning the glass. The freshman had six defensive rebounds in the win, the second straight game with at least six in the NCAA Tournament.
The future lottery pick has been playing high level basketball and given the likelihood of a lot of jump shots coming from the Crimson Tide, who are top 20 in three-point rate, there will be long rebounds for Castle to chase down.
Give me the over yet again for Castle, especially with a heightened pace.
Grant Nelson UNDER 15.5 Points + Rebounds
Nelson was the hero of the Crimson Tide’s win against North Carolina, finishing the game with 24 points, but was limited to just 21 minutes in the game against Clemson as he picked up two quick fouls and only finished with eight points and seven rebounds.
This total has adjusted down, but I still don’t envision a big outing for Nelson, who fouls at a high rate, he averages nearly five fouls per 40 minutes, and won’t be able to score much against Clingan around the rim. Overall, UConn has allowed the lowest field goal percentage at the rim this season, and Nelson isn’t a threat from the perimeter all that much at just 27% on the year.
The mixture of foul rate and limited field goal attempts has me siding with the under on Saturday night.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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