Best College Basketball Prop Bets for Gonzaga vs. Purdue (How to Bet on Ryan Nembhard, Braden Smith)
By Reed Wallach
Gonzaga and Purdue meet in a rematch of the two team’s Maui Invitational duel, but with the stakes significantly higher, a spot in the Elite Eight on the line.
This article is going to key in on player props for several impactful players, including both points guards in Gonzaga’s Ryan Nembhard as well as Purdue’s Braden Smith. I’m also targeting a schematic reason to take Ben Gregg’s over, but for what prop?
Keep reading to find out!
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Best College Basketball Player Props for Gonzaga vs. Purdue
- Ryan Nembhard OVER 6.5 Assists
- Ben Gregg OVER 1.5 Three Pointers Made
- Braden Smith UNDER 12.5 Points
Ryan Nembhard OVER 6.5 Assists
Nembhard has dished 21 assists in the first two games in the NCAA Tournament, sitting a total of 10 minutes despite the blowout wins. With that in mind, that means we will see Nembhard for nearly the entirety of this game.
I believe the best way to target him is in the assist prop market. He is the engine to this scorching Gonzaga offense and the ball always starts with him as the team gets into its primary actions.
Whether it's post entries into Graham Ike or pick-and-roll actions with Ben Gregg (more on him in a bit), Nembhard is facilitating this entire offense, posting an assist rate of nearly 30% on the year.
The Boilermakers' compact offense will allow assists, the team is bottom 100 in opponent assist rate allowed this season, and Nembhard dished out six dimes in Maui when these two teams first met.
Given the state of the Bulldogs offense, mixed with heightened volume, I’ll take Nembhard’s over assists.
Ben Gregg OVER 1.5 Three Pointers Made
Gregg was a non-factor against Purdue in the first meeting, logging 18 minutes and only taking five shots. However, we have seen the power forward get more and more burn on this emerging Gonzaga roster, and we have seen the results.
Since February 1st, Greg has made multiple threes in six of 13 games, just short of half the games. In games in which he has played more than 30 minutes in that sample, he has gone over in four of the seven games.
While not an overwhelming sample, the idea of running pick-and-pop actions to potentially open up the paint and drag the Purdue frontcourt away from the rim is going to be utilized by Mark Few’s bunch, and Gregg’s is the team’s frontcourt three-point threat.
I think Gregg gets up a handful of perimeter shots in this one, and if he’s on, he should crush this prop.
Braden Smith UNDER 12.5 Points
Smith tallied 13 points in the first meeting between these two teams, but with Gonzaga’s defense at its best now, I believe we see the veteran guard work more as a facilitator.
The Bulldogs are typically a hard hedge defense that looks to get the ball out of the point guard's hands under pressure and quickly. Smith has struggled to operate against that, but with the goal being to get the ball into Zach Edey and generate fouls on a thin Gonzaga frontcourt, I believe we see the Boilermakers force the issue inside early.
Smith is a dangerous three-point shooter, 44% on the year, but Gonzaga does a good job contesting the three-point line. Further, this number is expecting a higher than normal output for the sophomore, who is averaging just 12 points per game on the year and has gone under this mark in five straight games.
I’ll go under again.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Track Reed's bets here!