All eyes will be on ESPN Monday night with a limited college hoops slate, so let's turn our attention to the player prop market for this Big 12 showdown between Houston and Texas.
The Cougars defense is the best in the country, but is there a soft spot in the Cougars' defense that gives the likes of Dylan Disu an opportunity to go over a player prop? With that being said, Houston's big man J'Wan Roberts may have a favorable matchup on the other end against Disu, giving us plenty of value on big men in this Big 12 showdown.
Here's our best player prop bets for Monday's matchup.
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Best College Basketball Prop Bets for Houston vs. Texas
- J'Wan Roberts OVER 19.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists
- Dylan Disu OVER 1.5 Three Pointers Made
- Dylan Disu UNDER 5.5 Rebounds
J'Wan Roberts OVER 19.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists
The Texas defense has been gashed on the inside all conference play, 12th in two-point field goal percentage allowed this season, and that can lead to a ton of usage for Roberts around the rim. Texas likes to run teams off the three-point line, so the Cougars may look to its starting big man for more reps than his usual six field goal attempts per game.
Further, Roberts can eat on the glass. This is a pedestrian Texas rebounding unit, 94th in total rebounding percentage this season. Houston is fifth in offensive rebounding rate and Roberts is the engine behind that, gobbling at least two offensive boards in all but one Big 12 game this season.
I think Roberts can stuff the stat sheet with a big showing against this Texas frontcourt.
Dylan Disu OVER 1.5 Three Pointers Made
Houston gives you nothing on the interior on defense. The team allows a three-point rate of over 43% and that number is even higher in Big 12 play, 45%. Enter Disu, Texas' floor-stretching big man who is shooting 56% from beyond the arc this season on a limited sample this season (32 attempts).
I imagine a lot of possessions are going to be difficult for the Longhorns to gain traction and it will lead to a ton of kick-outs along the perimeter, which can get Disu a handful of attempts. He has taken at least three threes in all but two Big 12 games and has cleared this mark in four of games. At + money, and given the schematic matchup, this should be a good spot for Disu to hoist from the perimeter.
Dylan Disu UNDER 5.5 Rebounds
Sticking with Disu, I'm going to sell high after he grabbed seven rebounds against BYU and 10 the game prior against Oklahoma.
The Cougars are the 15th-best rebounding team in the country according to total rebound percentage, and Houston plays at a bottom-20 tempo so possessions will be limited.
Disu has seen his rebounding numbers drop over the balance of the season, and Houston is a relentless rebounding team. I believe we can sell high on his recent production, especially given that he may be playing further out along the perimeter in a floor-spacing capacity, as mentioned above.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.