Best College Basketball Prop Bets for Illinois vs. Iowa State in NCAA Tournament Sweet 16

Breaking down the best prop bets for the Illinois vs. Iowa State in NCAA Tournament's Sweet 16.

Mar 23, 2024; Omaha, NE, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini forward Marcus Domask (3) dribbles the ball
Mar 23, 2024; Omaha, NE, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini forward Marcus Domask (3) dribbles the ball / Steven Branscombe-USA TODAY Sports

It’s the top offense vs. the top defense with a spot in the Elite Eight on the line. 

There’s hot debate over who will prevail in this near-coin flip between Iowa State and Illinois, but there’s no denying that there’s plenty of value in the player prop market due to the complexion of these two clubs. 

Here’s three player prop bets for the nightcap from Boston, including bets on Milan Momcilovic, Tamin Lipsey and Marcus Domask. 

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Best College Basketball Player Props for Illinois vs. Iowa State

  • Milan Momcilovic OVER 1.5 3-Pointers
  • Tamin Lipsey OVER 11.5 Points
  • Marcus Domask OVER 4.5 Assists

Milan Momcilovic OVER 1.5 3-Pointers

Momcilovic will have his fair share of open looks against a leaky Illini defense. The freshman is the floor spacer on this Cyclones unit, taking nearly five 3s per game and hitting them at a 36% clip. 

However, he’s fresh off four straight games with at least two 3-point makes as the Cyclones are starting to find its rhythm on offense. 

Against the best offense in college basketball this season in terms of adjusted efficiency, per KenPom, Iowa State is going to be tasked with keeping pace. I believe that as the game goes on, the team’s ball screen action that will generate plenty of mid-range jumpers will turn into 3-point shots as the Illini defense sags in, opening up the floor for the likes of Momcilovic to go over this mark. 

Tamin Lipsey OVER 11.5 Points

As discussed above, the Illini are going to give up the mid-range two to Iowa State, in hopes of out-pacing them on the other end. However, Lipsey, and the Cyclones as a whole, is sharp from this area of the floor. 

Iowa State shoots 44% on short range jumpers to 17 feet jump shots this season, “excellent” per Synergy Sports, which is where Lipsey lives as the ball handler on this Cyclones offense.

Further the point guard has a knack for getting to the free throw line nearly four times per game where he shoots it at over 70% this season. 

We have seen the sophomore’s usage rise as a scorer in the postseason, scoring at least 15 in both games against Washington State and South Dakota State.

While the team will face a big step up in class, the Cougars are a good litmus test for the size he will see on Thursday and he passed it with flying colors, making five of his 11 shots while making two threes as well. 

In a higher scoring affair for the typical Cyclones rockfights, I think that means Lipsey’s usage is going up. 

Marcus Domask OVER 4.5 Assists

The Illini don’t have a traditional point guard on the floor, the team leans on five guards to initiate the offense most of the time, but Domask has become the de-facto point guard, especially with his back to the basket. 

The Southern Illinois transfer has great vision and size to make for a devastating passer. He will be tasked with handling the aggressive Iowa State defense, but that can open up skip passes with his back to the basket where he can turn, face and fire across the floor to open teammates. 

The Illini are going to get its points, and a lot of it will be on Domask’s shot creation. Over the last four games, Domask has at least seven assists in each game. I’ll ride with what’s working on Thursday. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.