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Best College Football Betting Trends for Week 3 (How to Bet Nick Saban in SEC Games)

By Reed Wallach

Sep 17, 2022; Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Nick Saban talks to
Sep 17, 2022; Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Nick Saban talks to / Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports
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Let's talk trends for this Saturday.

While you should never blindly bet trends, it's a key part of handicapping a game, and we spent all week finding some intriguing ones for you to sink your teeth into. From Nick Saban's SEC against the spread mark, to recent history of games closing with a total above 70, we uncovered some key trends you need to know for a profitable weekend of betting college football.

For more trends and analysis like this, make sure to check out The Early Reed from this week and all our college football coverage here:

Nick Saban Crushes SEC Opponents, and Sportsbooks

Since arriving at Alabama, Nick Saban has created a monster in Tuscaloosa, not just by winning National Championships, but lining sports bettors wallets. Whether the spread is big or small, Saban is a good bet to cash.

Nick Saban coached Alabama teams are 72-58 against the spread (ATS) in SEC play, good for a 55% hit rate.

Even if it's a public bet, Alabama has been cashing in SEC play. The team is laying 40.5 points against Vanderbilt in their SEC opener on Saturday.

Maryland Struggles Against Top 10 Competition

Maryland has consistently been bringing in strong recruiting classes and flirting around bowl eligibility, but the Terps are still waiting to take the leap under head coach Mike Locksley.

The Terps have been able to throttle inferior competition, but then struggle when they step up in class against top 10 foes. Since arriving to Maryland, Locksley-led Terps teams are 1-5 ATS against top 10 foes and 0-6 straight up, losing by an average margin of 38.6 points.

The team travels to Ann Arbor to face No. 4 Michigan on Saturday afternoon as 16.5-point underdogs.

High Conference Totals Leads to Unders

When totals touch 70 in college football, bettors usually rush to bet overs. However, over the last 10 seasons, it has been the unders in these games that are cash cows across a large sample size.

Since 2013, unders of 70 and above are hitting at a 55.2% rate (248-201-6) That number jumps to 56.1% in conference play (157-123-2).

Here are the games that have a total of 70 or above on Saturday (* means that it is a conference game as well).

  • TCU vs. SMU
  • North Texas vs. Memphis
  • USC vs. Oregon State*

USC vs. Oregon State opened at 68 and is now sitting at 70.5 across the board, but history says that the under may be worth a look on Saturday night.

Best Week 4 College Football Trends

  • Kansas State is 22-12-1 ATS under head coach Chris Klieman
  • Brian Kelly coached teams are 10-12-3 ATS as a favorite of three touchdowns or more
  • Iowa State is 24-15 against the spread (ATS) in home Big 12 games under Matt Campbell
  • The home team has won the previous four meetings between Baylor and Iowa State
  • Washington State is 21-14 in PAC-12 play against the spread (ATS) since 2013
  • Indiana is 12-18-1 against the spread (ATS) as an underdog under Tom Allen
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