Best College Football Picks Against the Spread for Every Conference Championship Game

The final week of the season is here ahead of bowl games and the College Football Playoff, and there is still much to decipher in the eyes of conference championships and CFP bids.

There are plenty of high leverage games on the docket for conference championship weekend, headlined by the SEC Championship meeting between Georgia and Alabama as well as Oregon and Washington meeting again.

There's 10 games and 10 conference titles on the line starting on Friday night and going through the evening and when the dust settles on Sunday we'll have some champions and hopefully a clearer college football playoff picture.

For a deeper dive, you can see my betting preview for Alabama vs. Georgia here, but this article is going to hit on how I'm betting EVERY spread on championship weekend. If you want some incentive to wager on these title games, sign up with Caesars Sportsbook, who is matching all new users first bet up to $1,000! Get started below.

New Mexico State vs. Liberty Prediction and Pick

PICK: New Mexico State +10.5

New Mexico State and Liberty played in Week 2, a 16-point win for the Flames. While Jamey Chadwell's bunch proceeded to run the table this season, I'm not sure we should be upgrading them a point against NMSU after the two teams played even on a yards per play basis (6.8 each).

New Mexico State has covered in 10 straight games since the loss to Liberty that includes upset wins against Western Kentucky, Jacksonville State and SEC foe Auburn. The Aggies have hit its stride on offense around the dynamic Diego Pavia, who has combined for over 3,500 total yards and leads an offense that is top 30 in EPA/Play.

New Mexico State has taken off on offense since the Week 2 meeting and is the only team in the top 30 in EPA/Play that Liberty has faced this season. Further, the team is one of the five slowest teams in the nation in terms of plays per minute. The Aggies can keep this one on the ground with the likes of Pavia, Star Thomas and Monte Watkins and limit the possessions en route to a cover.

Oregon vs. Washington Prediction and Pick

PICK: Oregon -9.5

Some may stunned by this number, but it's correct. Washington closed as a three-point home favorite at home against Oregon back in October, a three-point victory despite being outgained by more than 100 yards by the Ducks.

Oregon is the superior team that is playing better football at the moment. While the Huskies deserve a ton of praise for running the table against a grueling schedule, this team isn't what it was early in the year. Michael Penix Jr. has struggled a ton over the back half of the season while Oregon has only gotten better, tops in the country in success rate.

In six games since the team's meeting in Seattle, Washington has won all but one game by seven or less while Oregon has won by an average of 26 points per game.

Oklahoma State vs. Texas Prediction and Pick

PICK: Texas -14.5

Miami (Ohio) vs. Toledo Prediction and Pick

PICK: Miami (Ohio) +7.5

Boise State vs. UNLV Prediction and Pick

PICK: UNLV +3

It's commendable that Boise State made the Mountain West title game despite firing its coach two weeks ago, but this defense is going to be exposed against UNLV on the road after beating two banged up teams in a row in Utah State and Air Force.

Boise State's defense has fallen off a cliff after being an elite unit in 2022. The team has allowed 27 or more points to every top 50 offense in terms of EPA/Play outside of UCF (who had 400 total yards but converted only one of five times in the red zone).

Further, UNLV's defensive line can limit Boise State's run game and force Taylen Green into obvious passing situations, which won't work out for the road favorite. Green has completed only 20-of-53 passes on throws of 10-19 yards with zero big time throws to five turnover worthy plays and completed 11-of-39 passes of 20 or more yards.

Give me the home dog.

SMU vs. Tulane Prediction and Pick

PICK: Tulane -4

Alabama vs. Georgia Prediction and Pick

PICK: Georgia -6

Alabama's offense has come on over the last few weeks, but it's worth noting who the team has played. The unit scored 42 against one of the worst SEC defenses in LSU, 49 on an overrated Kentucky defense and 66 on FCS Chattanooga, before struggling in The Iron Bowl against a sturdy Auburn defense.

With that being said, I do believe offensive coordinator Tommy Reese can scheme up some openings for Milroe and the Crimson Tide offense to get the ball moving dow field. Yes, Georgia has an elite secondary, but the run defense has had holes and Milroe has been on point on his deep passes this entire season. It's no longer a fad, he's surgical at getting the ball down field to the likes of former Bulldogs wide receiver Jermaine Burton.

I don't trust Alabama's offense to stay consistent over the course of the game, to beat outduel Georgia, who possesses too much firepower on offense to move the ball at will, but I do believe the team can score a bit.

Georgia has been scoring with ease despite injuries all over during the course of the year, and I see no reason not to side with the Bulldogs offense yet again.

I think Georgia's efficiency on offense is too much for the sometimes prodding Alabama attack to keep up and that the Bulldogs pull away and punch its ticket to the CFP. 

Appalachian State vs. Troy Prediction and Pick

PICK: Troy -6.5

Louisville vs. Florida State Prediction and Pick

PICK: Florida State -2.5

Michigan vs. Iowa Prediction and Pick

PICK: Michigan -23.5

Will Iowa score in this one? I'm not so sure with the team down its best defender in Cooper DeJean and an offense that is inept in all facets.

Iowa has benefitted from playing poor offenses in the Big Ten West for much of this season, but when it played a plus offense in Penn State it got blasted 31-0, and I see Michigan eager to run this one up in a title game atmosphere with head coach Jim Harbaugh back on the sidelines.

Michigan is top 10 in both EPA/Play and success rate and are top 10 in yards per pass attempt. The team has leaned on its ground game often in its impactful games of late, but the team may be able to flip the field with ease against Iowa's somewhat overrated secondary.

The Wolverines are the best passing offense Iowa has seen this season and won't score themselves. Even if some Michigan drives stall, the team will be set up with short fields often as the team plays the field position battle against a poor Hawkeyes often.

It's a matter of time before Michigan finds the end zone and the dam breaks. Further, Harbaugh has scored in each of the last two Big Ten title games in the final two minutes despite being up big. Count on some style points late from the Wolverines.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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