South Florida will be playing its first bowl game since 2018 close to home in the 2023 Boca Raton Bowl against Syracuse.
Byrum Brown has been one of the more dynamic players in the Group of Five ranks as quarterback of Alex Golesh's up-tempo system, totaling north of 3,800 yards. How should we attack him in the player prop market against a stingy Syracuse defensive line? Further, how should we make sense of the Syracuse offense that will be possibly running a third string quarterback under center or a wildcat offense?
Here are my three favorite player prop's for Thursday's Boca Raton Bowl:
Best College Football Player Props for the Boca Raton Bowl
- Byrum Brown OVER 242.5 Passing Yards
- Byrum Brown to Score a Touchdown
- LaQuint Allen UNDER 127.5 Rushing Yards
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Byrum Brown OVER 242.5 Passing Yards
This is a battle of contrasting styles as Syracuse wants to slow things down and limit chunk plays while Golesh's Bulls' offense runs at a top five tempo in the country and is trying to rip off explosives through the air and on the ground.
Brown has been able to clear this mark in seven of 12 games, including the last four games. Given that Syracuse is favored, the expectation is that South Florida will either be behind or in a hotly contested battle, and I trust Golesh's scheme to find holes in Syracuse's zone defensive scheme.
There should be plenty of volume for him against a Cuse defense that allowed 30 or more to every bowl eligible team but Boston College this season, so I believe the Bulls offense can play up to its standards.
Byrum Brown to Score a Touchdown
Brown is a raw passer that has gotten better as the season has gone on, but he is best served as a bruising run-first quarterback. The Orange are top 20 in EPA/Rush, so I want to avoid Brown's rushing yard prop and instead take him to find the end zone.
The 6'3" redshirt freshman has 11 rushing touchdowns on the year this season on his 189 carries. When the Bulls get in close, the ball sticks with the QB, so I'll take him at this fair price to find the end zone.
LaQuint Allen UNDER 127.5 Rushing Yards
Syracuse will start either third string redshirt freshman Braden Davis, who logged only 57 snaps this season, or run a wildcat offense with tight end Dan Villari. With unproven passers on offense, this is going to bleed into the Syracuse run game.
This is an aggressive South Florida defense that loves to blitz, leaving it vulnerable to chunk passes, but given the lack of talent at quarterback to threaten through the air, the Bulls can stack the box where the team is ninth in the country in tackles for loss and 27th in defensive line yards.
This has been a national average run defense, per Pro Football Focus, and I believe with more attention on Allen, he'll stay under this incredibly high mark.
Allen has double digit carries in all but one game this season, and towards the end of the year started getting as much as ever with an injured Syracuse quarterback room, getting at least 18 carries in four of his last five games. However, he only cleared this mark twice this season. This number is counting on a ceiling outcome for Allen, but given the lack of passing threats now, I believe he is going to struggle.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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