Best Expert Picks College Football Bets for Week 10 (How to Bet Georgia vs. Missouri and More SEC Football)
By Reed Wallach
It's the first weekend of November and the action is picking up across the country with plenty of impactful SEC matchups, in addition to other games.
Georgia will play the best offense its seen to date when Missouri comes between the hedges, will the team continue to look the part after blasting Florida? I have a player on the total you can find below as well as a play on the spread between Ole Miss and Texas A&M.
Elsewhere, the Notre Dame vs. Clemson matchup has lost some of its luster with the Tigers falling short of expectations, but we still have a play on the total!
Here's three of my best bets for Saturday's College Football slate on what is a massive slate of games.
If you're betting this weekend, I suggest doing it at Caesars Sportsbook, who is matching all new users first bet up to $1,000! All you have to do to be eligible is opt in below!
Best College Football Bets for Week 10
- Missouri vs. Georgia OVER 55
- Ole Miss -3 vs. Texas A&M
- Notre Dame vs. Clemson UNDER 44.5
Missouri vs. Georgia Prediction and Pick
From this week's early week deep dive, I like the OVER between Georgia and Missouri.
Georgia came out of its BYE week to dismantle Florida 49-20, setting the tone for the second half of the season despite not having its top pass catcher Brock Bowers for the foreseeable future.
However, I believe the Tigers can help get this total OVER on Saturday afternoon between the hedges in what will be the best offense the Bulldogs have seen to date. Missouri has taken a significant step forward in 2023 with the emergence of wide receiver Luther Burden and fully healthy quarterback Brady Cook.
The Tigers will be able to stretch the Bulldogs' defense like no team has been able to do this season. Not only is Missouri efficient passing the ball, seventh in passing success rate, but the team is top 10 in yards per pass attempt. The team will be able to force defenders out of the box and open up the team's ground game as well.
Georgia's defense has plenty of talent, but this is not the lockdown unit that we have come to expect in 2023. The defense is outside the top 100 in sacks and is allowing opponents to score a touchdown on 76% of opponents' trips inside the red zone, the 122nd-best mark in the country.
Missouri is rightfully the underdog, but I believe the team is equipped to compete in this one. With the ability to stretch the Bulldogs' defense and convert from in close (Missouri is top 30 in red zone touchdown percentage on offense), the Tigers can do their share to get over the total.
With that being said, the Bulldogs will also find some success as well. Georgia showcased last week that it can hit chunk plays through the air without Bowers, and it helps that Ladd McConkey looks fully healthy. The Mizzou defense is middling for SEC standards this season and is below the national average in terms of points per drive allowed.
Carson Beck may not get the praise he likely deserves, but he has been putting totogethergetehr a fantastic season around a banged-up skill position group for the Bulldogs. Georgia is sixth in yards per play, sixth in completion percentage, and 13th in yards per pass attempt this season. The team has been prone to some slow starts at times, but this offense is among the best in the country.
Georgia's defense isn't what it was in the prior two seasons, but the offense hasn't dropped off like some had thought when the team lost quarterback Stetson Bennett, offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and now Bowers to injury. To me, this game reads as an over matchup between two of the best offenses in the country with Georgia breaking into the 30's with Missouri not too far behind.
PICK: OVER 55.5
Texas A&M vs. Ole Miss Prediction and Pick
While I think Texas A&M's pass rush that is top 15 in Pro Football Focus' grading can pose some issues for the Ole Miss front that is pedestrian in terms of pass blocking, I can't trust the offense to keep pace with the Rebels O.
The Aggies offense has been inconsistent all year and now will face a Ole Miss defense that is improved this season, ranking top 40 in both coverage grade and pass rush grade. The team is fifth in the nation in sacks and is 25th in yards per carry allowed. With the ability to limit Texas A&M's ground game that has struggled all year, the team can pin its ears back and get pressure on Johnson.
Texas A&M's offensive line has been the source for a lot of issues for the team's offense and it has led to Johnson being pressure on more than 48% of his dropbacks this season. When under pressure, Johnson is completing only 40% of his passes with only five yards per pass attempt. He has made only one big time throw under pressure with seven turnover worthy plays according to PFF.
Further, the Ole Miss offense should be able to scheme up enough chunk plays to challenge the Aggies secondary that is bottom five in the country in explosive pass rate allowed. While the Aggies defense could stop some drives, it's a matter of time before Dart and the fully healthy Rebels pass catching group hit a few big plays.
PICK: Ole Miss -3
Notre Dame vs. Clemson Prediction and Pick
Clemson's offense can't be trusted. The unit can't create chunk plays whatsoever, and it'll be no different against a sturdy Irish defense that is top 10 in EPA/Play. It won't help that the Tigers will likely be without running back Will Shipley, who suffered a concussion last week against NC State.
However, I do believe the Clemson defense can be wise to this Notre Dame offense that was able to score 58 points against Pitt last week but did have three defensive and special teams touchdowns in the win, inflating its point total. Hartman and star running back Audric Estime are a talented group, but the ND offense isn't overly explosive this season, leaning on the ground game and playing at a slow tempo.
Notre Dame is bottom 20 in plays per minute and is running the ball at a top 50 clip.
For all Clemson's offensive woes, the defense remains fantastic, top 10 in EPA/Play. The only time the Tigers allowed more than 28 points, the opponent needed overtime to do it.
I believe this game tracks as an under-matchup with both offenses struggling to get into scoring position.
PICK: UNDER 44.5
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Track Reed's bets here!