Best Expert Picks for College Football Week 12 (Can No. 1 Georgia Cover at Tennessee?)
By Reed Wallach
There are only two weeks left in the college football season, and everyone is trying to end the season on a betting high note.
Georgia travels to Neyland Stadium to face Tennessee on the heels of a blowout victory, can the Bulldogs continue its dominance and cover yet again as a double digit favorite? What about College Football Playoff contenders Texas and Washington's road trips? Will the two come out unscathed?
We have you covered with our best bets for Saturday's Week 12 slate. You can also fill your account up with bonus bets when you sign up for DraftKings Sportsbook below! All you have to do is sign up through the link below, bet just $5 (!) and get $150 in bonus bets and a no-sweat single-game parlay every day!
Best College Football Bets for Week 12
- Georgia (-10) vs. Tennessee
- Washington vs. Oregon State OVER 62.5
- Texas vs. Iowa State UNDER 47
Georgia vs. Tennessee Prediction and Pick
Tennessee has been overrated all season long as sportsbooks try to catch up to the drop-off from last season's top-flight offense. Joe Milton is far too inaccurate of a passer to trust to pull a titanic upset of the two-time defending National Champs, even at home.
Milton is completing 37% of his passes of more than 10-plus yards this season which makes up more than a third of his passes. To beat Georgia, teams need to be explosive to match the top five in EPA/Play Bulldogs offense. Tennessee has proven not to be that, unlike last year's team that was ranked No. 1 in the country in the AP Poll in the middle of the season.
Tennessee's defense can get pressure, but the secondary remains questionable, 120th in completion percentage allowed and 65th in explosive pass rate.
I believe the Bulldogs can separate and get margin on the Vols en route to an easy win and cover.
PICK: Georgia -9.5
Washington vs. Oregon State Prediction and Pick
This game is a project coin flip, and I agree with that sentiment. I believe there are matchup edges for both sides, but there's not some massive edge to be had betting a side in this game. I imagine this game will be determined by who wins the battle on fourth down and if Oregon State can keep Washington's offense off the field.
I'll give the nod to Oregon State, who is a wagon at home in the Jonathan Smith era against his former club. Since taking over in 2017, Smith is 22-12 at home straight up and 21-11-2 against the spread, including a staggering 14-2 ATS as a home favorite.
Corvallis has proven to be a difficult place to play for PAC-12 opponents in the Smith era and Saturday night should be no different.
However, my eyes continue to look at the total in this one. While it may be high for a game that features a team that plays at an incredibly slow pace, I believe both offenses are set up for success and should be able to push into the 30s with plenty of positive drives and each team's ability to score from in close.
Keep an eye on Oregon State's ability to convert from in close: Smith's team is third in the country in red zone touchdown percentage, scoring six on 81% of red zone trips, while Washington's defense is 113th in that same metric at over 70%.
Meanwhile, Washington's offensive line may open things up for the team's passing game. Washington's offensive line has allowed only seven sacks on the year, the fourth fewest in the country. If the Beavers pass rush can't get home, I think we see a big outing from Penix Jr, and this game goes over the total.
PICK: OVER 62.5
Get more college football coverage with our picks against the spread for EVERY Top 25 matchup here!
Texas vs. Iowa State Prediction and Pick
Iowa State is going to try and muddy this game up and hit a handful of explosive plays to stun Texas and ruin the teams' chances to make the College Football Playoff. The Cyclones play at the 12th slowest pace in college football this season in terms of plays per minute and are top 25 in explosive play rate.
Texas is a formidable defensive line that is 20th in tackles for loss, eighth in defensive line yards, and allows about three yards per game. However, the team is bottom half of the country in terms of explosive play rate. The secondary can be had, but down-to-down, this is an elite defense.
I believe the Longhorns will do a good job against Becht and this fairly one-dimensional offense, but I'm not sure I trust the Longhorns to get margin on the road against a stout ISU defense that is top 15 in passing success rate allowed and 21st in overall success rate.
The Longhorns are below the national average in terms of explosive play rate and 46th in success rate. Now, the team has a quarterback still working his way back from a shoulder injury and lost its starting running back. Iowa State's 3-3-5 defense is great at limiting big plays and forcing teams to go the length of the field.
I believe this game can become a defensive struggle under the lights in Ames and play on Iowa State's terms. With that being said, I'd prefer to take the under than the side.
PICK: UNDER 46.5
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Track Reed's bets here!