It's the last Saturday of the regular season and we want some player props.
I'm targeting three quarterbacks player props in Week 13 and letting you know if you should buy their respective matchup or sell it. Cam Ward leads a high octane Washington State passing offense, but how will it do against an emerging Washington secondary? What about Rocco Becht of Iowa State and Cade Klubnik of Clemson?
Here are my three favorite passing yards props for Saturday's Week 13 action:
Best Expert Prop Bets for College Football Week 13
- Cameron Ward UNDER 296.5 Passing Yards
- Rocco Becht OVER 203.5 Passing Yards
- Cade Klubnik OVER 216.5 Passing Yards
Sign up for Caesars Sportsbook using the link below and get your first bet matched up to $1,000!
Cameron Ward UNDER 296.5 Passing Yards
Ward is at the helm of an offense that is top five in pass play percentage, but one that has struggled for much of the back half of the season. The Cougars lost six straight games before beating up on a listless Colorado team as the offense stagnanted against the likes of Stanford, Arizona and UCLA. In that six game losing streak, Ward went under this total in half of those games.
Now, let's look at the matchup against Washington, who is far stronger in the secondary than its rush defense. While the Cougars pass on more than 62% of its plays, it'd be better suited to attack on the ground against the Huskies defense that is 125th in EPA/Rush this season. With that being said, the defense is top third in the nation in terms of EPA/Pass.
I'll fade this lofty Ward number on Saturday.
Rocco Becht OVER 203.5 Passing Yards
Becht has come on in Big 12 play for the Cyclones offense, which is top third in EPA/Pass now as the team struggles to establish the run. He has cleared this mark in six of 11 games, landing on 203 exactly in two other games. This seems to be a median outcome for the quarterback, and I believe this matchup sets up favorably for him against a sturdy Kansas State defensive line, but vulnerable secondary.
Kansas State is right around the national average in terms of opponents passing yards allowed per game at 231.1. The team may have strong EPA/Play numbers, but the team has allowed 20 or more in six of eight Big 12 games. Given that Iowa State is a pass-heavy offense, I think the Cyclones do most of its damage there.
Cade Klubnik OVER 216.5 Passing Yards
It's been a long season for Clemson, but the team is starting to look its best at the end of the season, winning three straight. Klubnik has improved his play as the season has gone on, and this number is underrating the plus matchup he has against South Carolina's poor defense.
Klubnik has cleared this mark in six of 11 games this season and now draws a South Carolina defense that is 96th in EPA/Pass this season. The Gamecocks have been torched by any decent passing offense all season, allowing at least 230 passing yards to the likes of North Carolina, Florida, Texas A&M and Tennessee. Missouri's Brady Cook passed for less than two touchdowns as the Tigers built an early lead and opted to run the ball more often.
Clemson enters as a prohibitive favorite, so there's a chance the team looks to establish the ground game, but following an upset loss last year to the hands of South Carolina, I believe we see Klubnik and the offense look to get some revenge on the Gamecocks and put up a big number on the scoreboard.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Track Reed's bets here!