Best futures bet to place for all 32 NFL teams before opening week
We are quickly approaching kickoff of the 2023-2024 NFL season!
As I've done for the past three years, I plan on betting on all 272 games that are scheduled to take place this upcoming season. But, before the season starts and the "Road to 272 Bets" begins, I have placed my favorite futures bet for all 32 teams.
So, let's jump into it. Here are my best bets to place for all 32 teams before the 2023-24 NFL season begins.
2023 NFL Best Bets for All 32 Teams
Arizona Cardinals Best Bet
UNDER 4.5 Wins (-102)
There’s nothing positive to say about the Arizona Cardinals right now, except for maybe we can give them credit for committing to the rebuild this year. They’re starting new with a head coach in Jonathan Gannon and a general manager in Monti Ossenfort.
But, that’s about as positive as you can get. The roster has been gutted and anyone with any talent left the team and they did nothing to replace them. Their defense will be especially bad with Budda Baker being the only name you’ll recognize on that side of the ball.
Their star player, Kyler Murray, will miss the start of the season and even when he does return, there’s no guarantee he will be the player we all hoped he would be. He had an especially bad year in 2022, directly after signing a big time contract in the offseason that involved a clause that made sure he actually watches film on a weekly basis.
I don’t know about you, but the only bet I feel comfortable making on the Cardinals this season is for them to go UNDER their win total of 4.5.
Atlanta Falcons Best Bet
Make the Playoffs +112
Hand up, I have no ability to put my Falcons fandom aside when I write about them. I know that’s not very big “J” journalist of me, so it’s a good thing I’m not one of those.
I place this same bet on the Falcons virtually every season, but this year I’m more confident in this pick than I have been since Julio Jones dropped a fourth down touchdown pass in the end zone against the Eagles in the playoffs to end their bid to win the NFC for the second straight year.
The Falcons have made a lot of great additions to their defense that not many people are talking about. Calais Campbell, David Onyemata, Bud Dupree and Jessie Bates to name a few. Certainly not names that are going to be all-pro this year, but all veteran guys who are going to fill voids that the Dirty Birds had on that side of the ball.
Mix in the fact the NFC South is the weakest division in football and the Falcons have the second easiest schedule in the league, and it all points towards Atlanta returning to the postseason for the first time since 2017.
Baltimore Ravens Best Bet
Win the AFC North +220
Let’s start off by saying that John Harbaugh may just be the best coach in the NFL. The Ravens have been one of the most injured teams over the past few years, but yet Harbaugh continues to drag them to the playoffs including last year where they were a Sam Hubbard 99-yard fumble return away from beating the Bengals and advancing to the Divisional Round.
Now, Lamar Jackson is re-signed and they have loaded up their offense with weapons like Odell Beckham Jr. and Zay Flowers to join the likes of Rashod Bateman and Mark Andrews.
Then there’s their defense, which is spearheaded by the likes of Roquan Smith, Patrick Queen, Marlon Humphrey and Kyle Hamilton.
The Bengals may be the preseason favorite, but I’ll take the Ravens to claim the division.
Buffalo Bills Best Bet
OVER 10.5 Wins (-130)
Either we’ll look back at this as being the easiest bet of 2023 or we’re going to feel stupid for falling for an obvious trap.
The Bills have won at least 11 games in three straight seasons and went 13-3 last year (we can even call it 13-4 if you want to give them a loss for the Damar Hamlin game). Are they really going to have their record decrease by three whole wins?
They obviously have a tough schedule and play in an extremely competitive division, but this team is too talented to not go at least 11-6. The Bills were the third best team in net yards per play last season and will be returning largely the same roster with the addition of first round pick, Dalton Kincaid who will give Josh Allen another weapon to play with at tight end.
Carolina Panthers Best Bet
Bryce Young Offensive Rookie of the Year +420
I feel most of the season-long odds are quite fair for the Carolina Panthers, so instead I’m going to look at an individual award for a player and take the first overall pick, Bryce Young, to win Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Young has already taken over as the No. 1 QB on the Panthers and he has some solid weapons to work with in his first year. His top target will be veteran receiver, Adam Thielen, and he also has DJ Chark and Terrace Marshall Jr. to throw to. They can lean on the running game with Miles Sanders and Hayden Hurst will be a good safety blanket for him at tight end.
Falcons running back, Bijan Robinson, is set as the betting favorite but I don’t think that’s warranted. He’s entering a situation where he’ll be splitting time with Tyler Allgeier and Cordarrelle Patterson. Young is the bet to make here, especially at his current odds.
Chicago Bears Best Bet
UNDER 7.5 Wins (+105)
I’d love to know why bettors and oddsmakers think the Bears, the worst team in the NFL last season, will somehow improve by at least five wins. Not only that, but the UNDER 7.5 on their win total this season is at plus-money. Yes, please!
I won’t argue that they didn’t take a step in the right direction this season, but improving by five wins is a stretch too far.
As we all know, Chicago surpassing its win total this season lies on the shoulders of their young quarterback, Justin Fields, and I might be the biggest Justin Fields hater in the world.
I don’t understand the hype and confidence behind this player, who outside of a few flashy plays, hasn’t shown he can be a top player at his position in the NFL. He ranked 25th in the NFL last year in quarterback rating and 17th in QBR. He threw only six more touchdowns than interceptions and should less-than-stellar decision making throughout the season.
So, now that he has DJ Moore he’s all of a sudden going to lead the Bears to 8 wins? Miss me with that. NFL players should feel ashamed for ranking him above Trevor Lawrence in the NFL Top 100 this season.
Cincinnati Bengals Best Bet
UNDER 11.5 Wins (-144)
The Cincinnati Bengals are another team that I think is over-hyped heading into this season. Sure, they went on a big win streak to close out the year and were a play or two away from going back to the Super Bowl, but they were also about to be eliminated in the wild card round of the playoffs if it wasn’t for a Sam Hubbard 99-yard fumble return for a touchdown against the Ravens.
The Bengals ranked just 13th in the NFL last year in net yards per play, which tells me they were over-performing by a certain extent. Yes, they have Joe Burrow and plenty of offensive weapons, but their defense leaves a lot to be desired. Now, their secondary is going to take a step back and the loss of Jessie Bates and Vonn Bell can’t be understated.
In a tough division, I’ll bet on them to go under their aggressive win total of 11.5.
Cleveland Browns Best Bet
UNDER 9.5 Wins (-130)
By the end of this season, people will be talking about how the Deshaun Watson contract might be one of the worst in NFL history.
He made his return to the NFL last season and through six games he completed just 58.2% of passes while throwing seven touchdowns and five interceptions. Even the passes he completed averaged just 6.5 yards per throw. Sure, you could blame rust, but what I saw out there was more than just rust.
Add in the fact their defense is completely average and they play in one of the best divisions in football, and I see another seven or eight win season on their horizon.
Dallas Cowboys Best Bet
OVER 9.5 Wins (-154)
I feel like all I need to do is point to how weak the NFC is to make a solid case that the Cowboys should hit at least double-digit wins in 2023. Listen, I’m no believer in this team as a Super Bowl contender and I think Mike McCarthy is one of the worst coaches in the league, but based on talent alone they should record at least 10 wins this year.
They were 14th in the NFL last season in yards per play and eighth in opponent yards per play, boasting one of the best defenses in the league.
I expect their offense to take a significant step forward this season. Without having to worry about giving Ezekiel Elliott carries, the Cowboys can feed Tony Pollard the ball as much as they want. They also added a talented receiver in Brandin Cooks to the mix.
Is this team really going to get worse by three wins after going 12-5 last season? I don’t see it. In fact, I wouldn’t be shocked if they can reach 13 wins in 2023.
Denver Broncos Best Bet
OVER 8.5 Wins (+106)
One of the most fascinating story lines of the upcoming season is how the Denver Broncos will look with Sean Payton at the helm. The Broncos performed the rare trade for a head coach and Payton agreed to take over the team after their disastrous 2022 campaign.
I’m not the biggest Sean Payton fan in the world, but if he can improve their offense even slightly, the Broncos will surpass this win total. In case you need a reminder, the Broncos had one of the best defenses in the NFL last season.
For the majority of the year, they were the number one scoring defense, but regressed in that area once the team gave up on the season, allowing an average of 35.33 points over their last three games.
If their win total was even 9.5, I’d probably look somewhere else, but at 8.5 I believe in this team enough to take the OVER.
Detroit Lions Best Bet
Amon-Ra St.Brown Most Regular Season Receiving Yards +3000
This is my biggest longshot bet of the 2023 NFL season. I don’t necessarily think that Amon-Ra St. Brown should be the favorite in this category, but he has amazing value at +3000 to lead the league in receiving yards.
He had a breakout year in 2023, racking up 106 receptions for 1,161 yards and six touchdowns. But, more importantly, he has the No. 2 rated wide receiver behind Tyreek Hill, according to PFF.com.
He did all of that while ranking just sixth in targets with 146. If he can get as many looks as players like Justin Jefferson and Davante Adams, he has the chance to lead the league in receiving yards.
I don’t love the hype behind the Lions this year, but there is no doubt that he’s their best offensive weapon. Even if you don’t think Detroit will live up to expectations, there’s no denying St. Brown will be one of the best receivers in the NFL.
Green Bay Packers Best Bet
UNDER 7.5 Wins (+110)
The Green Bay Packers will begin their post-Aaron Rodgers era in 2023. They’ve been spoiled with great quarterback play over the past three decades, going directly from Brett Favre to Aaron Rodgers. Can Jordan Love fill the shoes of his predecessors?
I don’t think so.
And even if he does, the Packers would need to match their win total from last season to go over their projected total of 7.5 wins.
They did not nearly do enough in the offseason to convince me they’ll be able to do that. They’ll head into their season with their receiving corp being made up of Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs and a bunch of nobodies.
Not exactly a lineup that bodes well for Love’s progression.
Let’s also consider their defense was 28th in the NFL in opponent yards per play last season.
I’ll take the UNDER on their win total in 2023.
Houston Texans Best Bet
Will Anderson Defensive Rookie of the Year +500
Will Anderson is the betting favorite to be the Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2023, but I think his price is still more than fair at +500.
He was the first defensive player selected in the NFL Draft when the Houston Texans went CJ Stroud and Anderson with back-to-back picks. What I like most about Anderson in his rookie season is that he’ll get to learn from one of the best defenders in Texans history, DeMeco Ryans, who has taken over as head coach.
Indianapolis Colts Best Bet
Worst Regular Season Record +1500
The Colts are surprisingly tied for sixth on the odds list to finish with the worst record in the NFL this year behind the Cardinals, Buccaneers, Texans, Rams, and Raiders. I think that means they have some great value at their current odds because this team stinks!
Jonathan Taylor likely won’t be healthy to start the year, their receiving corp is pitiful, and their defense is less than ideal.
Their quarterback is going to be either Gardner Minshew or Anthony Richardson and based on how Richardson played at Florida, I have no faith in him either.
It’s a long shot bet, but it’s one that’s worth a sprinkle of a few shekels.
Jacksonville Jaguars Best Bet
Win AFC South -155
Yes, it’s -155. It’s not the sexiest bet on the board, but I still think it has fantastic value at that price. I hate every other team in this division this season and I can’t imagine any of them competing with the Jaguars.
The Jaguars won the AFC South last season and Trevor Lawrence was arguably the best quarterback in the league in the second half of the season. Secondly, they have an extremely young roster and a Super Bowl-winning head coach going into his second year with the team.
There’s nowhere to go but up for the Jaguars and I’m especially excited to see what Calvin Ridley can do to help this offense even further.
I think they’ll run away with the division.
Kansas City Chiefs Best Bet
AFC No. 1 Seed +320
Last season, there were plenty of members of sports media (myself included) who tried to big-brain the Kansas City Chiefs and predict they weren’t going to win the division or even miss the playoffs entirely.
They responded by finishing with the best record in the conference and winning a second Super Bowl in the past four years.
I’m officially done doubting the Chiefs as long as they have Patrick Mahomes as their quarterback. They’re the team to beat once again and they’ll once again be the top seed in the AFC.
Las Vegas Raiders Best Bet
Maxx Crosby Defensive Player of the Year +1600
Maxx Crosby took a big step forward in his production last year for the Raiders. He finished the season with 89 combined tackles, including 22 for a loss, along with 12.5 sacks. His 22 tackles for a loss was the best mark in the NFL and it resulted in him finishing sixth in voting for defensive player of the year.
Now, with him entering his fifth year as a pro, he’s about to be in his prime as an edge rusher for the Raiders and if he takes another step forward, he’ll be in the conversation to win defensive player of the year.
Don’t forget that with Raiders rookie, Tyree Wilson, playing on the other side of the line, some pressure will be taken off Crosby and he’ll be able to play more free in 2023.
Los Angeles Chargers Best Bet
Justin Herbert Most Regular Season Passing Yards +700
Justin Herbert is second on the odds list to lead the NFL in passing yards this season, behind only Patrick Mahomes of the Chiefs. In my opinion, there are a few signs that point toward Herbert surpassing Mahomes and finishing with the most air yards in 2023.
First of all, Brandon Staley and the Chargers love to throw the football. They ranked second in the league last season in passing play percentage, throwing the ball 65.09% of the time. The only team that threw the ball more was the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but with Tom Brady gone you can assure they won’t lead that stat again this season.
Secondly, the Chargers hired Kellen Moore as their offensive coordinator. Moore is widely regarded as one of the best offensive minds in the game, especially when it comes to the passing attack.
I love this bet for Herbert this season.
Los Angeles Rams Best Bet
OVER 6.5 Wins (+110)
Call me crazy, but I’m not ready to count out the former Super Bowl champs after just one bad season. Are they a Super Bowl contender like they were two years ago? No. Are they as bad as their record last year? No.
Their success comes down to just how healthy Matthew Stafford will be in his return. Even when he was healthy at the start of the season, he didn’t look himself. But, if Stafford and Cooper Kupp can return to their 2021 form, that alone is enough to vault them over 6.5 wins.
I’m higher on the Rams this season than most, so I won’t hesitate taking the OVER on their win total.
Miami Dolphins Best Bet
Win the AFC East +300
This is a value bet more than anything else. I do think the Bills are the rightful favorites to repeat as division champions, but I think +300 for the Dolphins to achieve the feat is a complete misprice of the situation.
Tua Tagovailoa, is healthy, is one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL. I truly believe that. Among all quarterbacks who played in at least 10 games last season, Tua led the NFL in quarterback rating at 105.5 and was third in QBR.
All the hype might be surrounding the Bills and Jets, but don’t sleep on the Dolphins making some noise.
Minnesota Vikings Best Bet
Win the NFC North +300
I’m not buying in on the hype for the Lions and I’m extremely low on the Bears and Packers. By default, that leaves me with the Minnesota Vikings to win the division and I can’t believe they’re priced to do exactly that.
They were the fun team for everyone to call frauds last season, but I oddly think their record reflected where they should have ended up based on talent. I feel they overperformed and underperformed at the same time, if that makes any sense at all.
I think the biggest change they made this offseason to help this team moving forward is the hiring of Brian Flores, arguably the best defensive coordinator in the NFL. They also moved on from veteran receiver, Adam Thielen, but brought in rookie receiver Jordan Addison.
My prediction is they perform a lot better on the stat sheet this season but finish with virtually the same record. If they do that, they’ll be NFC North champions once again.
New England Patriots Best Bet
UNDER 7.5 Wins (-140)
I think the Patriots are going to be a dumpster fire this year and it’s going to be cathartic for us non-Patriots to watch. Gone are the days of them inevitably owning a top seed and waltzing their way to the Super Bowl.
Not only is Mac Jones not the answer at quarterback and their defense is sub par at best, but they hold the hardest schedule in the NFL and it’s not even close.
Take the UNDER on their win total as they try to keep their head above water in the best division in football.
New Orleans Saints Best Bet
Derek Carr Most Interceptions Thrown +1600
Derek Carr was tied for second in interceptions last season, throwing a total of 14. Just one fewer than Dak Prescott and Davis Mills, who threw 15 each.
Signing Carr was a puzzling move by the Saints, in my opinion. They had the second worst turnover margin in the NFL in 2023 at -0.6 turnovers per game. Their response to that was to go out and get one of the most turnover prone quarterbacks in the game.
It seems like a match made in hell.
I’m shocked he’s available at 16/1 to be the interceptions leader this season.
New York Giants Best Bet
OVER 7.5 Wins (-106)
A good coach in the NFL can drag a team or eight or nine wins in a season. With Brian Daboll, the NFL Coach of the Year, at the helm, I hesitate to mess around with the UNDER on the Giants’ win total.
Sure you could say they over-performed in 2022, but they’d still have to two fewer wins in order to go under this win total in 2023.
Considering they improved in the offseason, especially on the offensive line, I like their OVER 7.5 wins this upcoming season. They may not make the postseason, but they’ll at least hit eight wins.
New York Jets Best Bet
Robert Saleh Coach of the Year +1600
Robert Saleh quietly coached the New York Jets to having one of the best defenses in the NFL in 2022, but because their offense was so bad, nobody noticed.
The Jets defense allowed the second fewest yards per play at 4.8 and the second fewest points per game at 18.6.
Now, with Aaron Rodgers as their quarterback, they should have a competent offense that will let the defense shine. If they make the playoffs, or even win the AFC East, Saleh is going to be a top candidate to win coach of the year.
Philadelphia Eagles Best Bet
Jalen Hurts NFL MVP
Jalen Hurts finished second in MVP voting last year but yet is somehow listed at +1200 to win it this upcoming season.
Hurts took huge steps forward with his progression in his third year in the NFL and there’s no reason not to believe he won’t take another step forward this year. You can add on the fact the Eagles are unarguably the best team in the NFC and they don’t even have a tough schedule to worry about.
The Eagles have the 13th easiest schedule in the NFL, easier than all other MVP candidates including Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, and Josh Allen.
This might be my favorite awards bet available this season.
Pittsburgh Steelers Best Bet
UNDER 8.5 Wins (+120)
With all due respect to Mike Tomlin, there’s only so much he can do with this team. Kenny Pickett seems to be a popular candidate to take a significant step forward this season, so I might be on an island when I say that I’m not a believer in him.
I’m also not a fan fan Najee Harris, who has only averaged 3.9 yards per carry through his first two years in the season. That’s not going to cut it in the NFL.
It’s certainly not my most confident bet of the season, but I’m going to take the UNDER on the Steelers’ win total.
San Francisco 49ers Best Bet
Win the NFC West -200
Much like we did with the Jacksonville Jaguars, let’s keep things simple with the 49ers and take them to win their division, despite being the odds on favorite.
The majority of their roster will be returning for 2023 including the top scoring defense from 2022 and one of the best coaches in the NFL in Kyle Shanahan.
The only question is if Brock Purdy, the presumed starter, will be able to repeat the level of success he had last season. If he can, the sky’s the limit for the 49ers this season.
Seattle Seahawks Best Bet
UNDER 9 Wins (-130)
The Seattle Seahawks were the feel good story of the year, especially during the first half of the season. Unfortunately, I think they’re going to turn into a pumpkin in 2023. Let’s not forget that they were projected to be the worst team in the NFL in 2022.
Geno Smith’s numbers regressed throughout the season and his turnover issue from early in his season began to once again rear its head.
I have no faith in them being able to recreate their 2022 magic this season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Best Bet
OVER 6.5 Wins
I have more belief in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers than most people. Just because they lost an aging Tom Brady doesn’t mean they’re going to go from one of the best teams in the NFC to one of the worst. Sure, they won’t be as good, but I think they can reach seven wins.
Let’s still remember this team has some top tier talent at wide receiver and an above average defense that can bail out an underperforming offense.
I’ll take the OVER on their win total in 2023.
Tennessee Titans Best Bet
UNDER 7.5 Wins (-110)
I don’t care that the Titans signed DeAndre Hopkins, this team has no teeth in 2023. Their whole offense over the past few years has been centered around Derrick Henry, who is well past his prime.
He averaged only 4.4 yards per carry this past season and with him leading the league in carries in three of the past four season, you can expect further regression this season.
They also no longer have the defense to bail them out.
Washington Commanders Best Bet
UNDER 6.5 Wins (-120)
I was deciding between the Colts and the Commanders for my “worst record in the NFL” bet, but I ended up opting for the Colts. That leaves me with the UNDER 6.5 wins to take with the Commanders.
They’re rolling with Sam Howell as the quarterback this season, in the only offensive player to really be excited about is Terry McLaurin.
If you can find odds for the first head coach to be fired, Ron Rivera is probably going to be a good bet for that market.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.