We're less than a month and a half out from the end of baseball's regular season, and while home runs are down in the month of August, I'm expecting a surge to come with some of the final hot days of summer remaining.
For today's "Daily Dinger" picks, the BetSided team is looking to the midwest for all four of our picks; with all four players in the Central division of their respective Leagues.
Best Home Run Picks Today
- Bryan Reynolds (+370) - DraftKings Sportsbook
- Byron Buxton (+230) – DraftKings Sportsbook
- Paul Goldschmidt (+320) - FanDuel Sportsbook
- Albert Pujols (+450) - FanDuel Sportsbook
Bryan Reynolds (+370) - Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Bryan Reynolds is one of the best young outfielders in the game. He’s already hit 20 home runs this season, including five in August.
Today, he and the Pirates get to face-off against Jake Odorrizzi of the Atlanta Braves. Odorizzi has been terrible since being acquired by Atlanta at the deadline. He has an ERA of 5.93 during this stretch, while giving up 2.6 home runs per nine innings. That’s music to my ears.
As an added bonus, Reynolds slugging percentage increases from .402 against lefties, to .492 against right-handed pitchers. Today, he gets to face a righty in Odorizzi. - Iain MacMillan
You can track Iain's bets onBetstamp here.
Byron Buxton (+230) – Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twins
Byron Buxton hasn’t hit for average this season, but he has 28 home runs to lead the Minnesota Twins. Buxton has a favorable matchup on Monday against Texas Rangers youngster Cole Ragans.
In three starts this season, Ragans has allowed four home runs, including two in each of his last two outings.
Buxton might be due to go yard, as he’s gone deep just twice in August despite hitting better average wise (.234) than he has on the season. I like him to take advantage of a young starter tonight. – Peter Dewey
Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.
Paul Goldschmidt (+285) - St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs
I bet it on Saturday, and I’m going to bet it again.
Paul Goldschmidt’s numbers against lefties this season are downright absurd. He has a slash line of .435/.527/.845 with a near 10% home run rate. He dominates lefty pitching time and time again and now gets to face Drew Smyly of the Cubs.
Don’t overthink it, bet the NL MVP to crush another. – Reed Wallach
Track all of Reed's bets at Betstamp HERE!
Albert Pujols (+450) - St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs
The future Hall of Famer is on a power surge in the month of August; smoking six of his 13 home runs over the last 12 days!
While Goldy gets all the credit for being the dominant hitter vs. left-handed pitching, Pujols (along with Arenado) have also been incredible vs. southpaws this season.
Amongst batters with 60 or more plate appearances, Pujols has an absurd .492 weighted-on-base average (wOBA) vs. lefties; third-best in baseball to go along with a .388 isolated power. Nine of his 13 home runs this year have come against left-handers in 28 less at-bats.
I wrote how Smyly has been very good in August, but if he’s going to be pitching around Goldschmidt and Arenado, at some point, he’ll have to challenge Pujols, and he’ll continue his Cub-crushing career for at least another night. – Ben Heisler
Follow all of Ben’s betting plays in real-time HERE!
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