Betsided

Daily Dinger: Best Home Run Picks Today (Double Up on Cardinals Bats in Colorado)

By Ben Heisler, Donnavan Smoot, Peter Dewey

St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Paul Goldschmidt high fives teammate Nolan Arenado. Both sluggers are active in the NL MVP race in 2022.
St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Paul Goldschmidt high fives teammate Nolan Arenado. Both sluggers are active in the NL MVP race in 2022. / Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
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We’re back in the win column from Tuesday night as Peter Dewey’s “Dinger” pick of Atlanta Braves third baseman Austin Riley cashed at +275 odds. With the victory, Peter earned his 12th “Dinger” of the season, moving him into second place amongst the BetSided team.

For Tuesday night, all three of us are on the St. Louis Cardinals vs. Colorado Rockies matchup from Coors Field, featuring by far the highest total on the board at WynnBET Sportsbook at 12.5 runs.

You can follow along in our team standings all season long HERE!

Best Home Run Picks Today

  • Paul Goldschmidt (+275) - Caesars Sportsbook & DraftKings
  • Nolan Arenado (+280) - FanDuel Sportsbook
  • Ryan McMahon (+650) - DraftKings

Paul Goldschmidt (+275) – St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockies

Is there a better hitter against left-handed pitching in MLB than Paul Goldschmidt?

This season, Goldy is slashing an astounding .458/.547/.847 in 72 at-bats this season, tallying six homers as well. Now, he gets to face lefty Kyle Freeland at Coors Field on Wednesday. 

Freeland has allowed 13 homers this season, and with the increased altitude, I think Goldy stays hot as ever against a southpaw that he’s faced 25 times in his career. -- Peter Dewey

Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.

Nolan Arenado (+280) – St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockies

Freeland has given up a home run in three of his last five starts and Coors Field is one of the best parks for hitters.

Tonight, the wind is going to be blowing out at 10 mph, helping the over, and Arenado is already on a hot streak. He’s hit a homer in four of his last nine games. The thin Colorado air is perfect for him to hit five home runs in a 10 game span.

Arenado has also hit 15 of his 22 home runs this season on the road. One more in Colorado would just be a continuation of his normal hitting. – Donnavan Smoot

You can find Donnavan Smoot’s full betting record here.

Ryan McMahon (+650) - Colorado Rockies vs. St. Louis Cardinals

I get that McMahon isn't the crazy power threat of the previous two hitters above, but he still has double digit dingers and is among the hottest hitters on the planet since August.

Since the start of the month, McMahon is hitting .385 with a .808 slugging percentage, a .530 weighted on-base average, or wOBA, and an isolated power, or ISO of .423 (league average is .140). He has three home runs this month, including a bomb last night, and is as locked in as anyone in the league.

The pitching matchup helps too with Jose Quintana on the mound for St. Louis. McMahon has actually hit lefties slightly better at home than against right-handers. Even more impressive? He spits on plenty of pitches out of the zone and waits to strike, walking 18.5% of the time at home vs. lefties compared to 11% vs. right-handers.

McMahon's value is off the charts good tonight, and I'll be backing him with confidence. -- Ben Heisler

Follow all of Ben's betting plays in real-time HERE!

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