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Daily Dinger: Best Home Run Picks Today (Keeping Backing José Berríos to Give Up Big Flies)

By Ben Heisler, Donnavan Smoot, Iain MacMillan, Peter Dewey

Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Jose Berrios has allowed 1.59 HR/9 innings this year, a career-high for the 28-year old right-hander.
Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Jose Berrios has allowed 1.59 HR/9 innings this year, a career-high for the 28-year old right-hander. / Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports
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After our first time swinging and missing on all of our "Daily Dinger" picks this week, the bulk of the crew is back to give it a shot on a 13-game MLB slate today.

We've got one afternoon matchup out in Kansas City, followed by several early evening matchups with all sorts of juicy pitching matchups and some helpful weather to boot.

Here are our team's best home run prop bet picks for Thursday, September 22.

Be sure to follow along in our team standings all throughout the season HERE!

Best Home Run Picks Today

Carlos Correa - Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals

The Minnesota Twins and Carlos Correa desperately need a win on Thursday to stay afloat in the AL Central, and they have a cupcake pitching matchup against Kansas City’s Jonathan Heasley. 

Heasley has allowed 17 home runs in 18 starts this season, and he’s been one of the worst pitchers in baseball per Baseball Savant, ranking in the bottom 10 percentile in expected ERA, hard hit percentage and average exit velocity against. 

Correa already has 21 homers on the season, and I think he’s a solid bet at 4/1 to go deep off Heasley or the below average Royals bullpen. – Peter Dewey

Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.

Ian Happ - Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates

Everything is coming up Milhouse for Ian Happ today on the road in Pittsburgh.

The weather at PNC Park is setting up for a bunch of dingers tonight, with the wind howling out to right-center field at 14-16 mph. He also faces right-hander Mitch Keller, who he's dominated in head-to-head matchups in his career.

Lifetime vs. Keller in 14 at-bats (18 plate appearances), Happ is 7-14 with two home runs, four walks and just three strikeouts. His slugging percentage is 1.000 and sees the ball out of his hands like a beach ball

15 of his 17 home runs this season for the first time MLB All-Star have come from the left side of the plate.

The lines vary quite a bit on Happ's number across several sportsbooks, and there is value to be had for the switch-hitting stud.

Randy Arozarena - Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays

I unfortunately need to fade my Toronto Blue Jays with Jose Berrios on the mound. He has 4.99 ERA on the season, and he’s allowing 1.6 home runs per nine innings pitched. That’s not very promising.  It’s also important to note that the Blue jays’ bullpen allows 1.2 home runs per nine innings, which is the fourth most in the Majors.

So, targeting a Tampa Bay Ray tonight is probably a good call. I’m going to back Randy Arozarena tonight, who is looking for his first home runs since September 6th. He’s already hit one against the Blue Jays this season, so I hope he can hit a second against them tonight. – Iain MacMillan

You can track Iain's bets on Betstamp here.

José Abreu – Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians

Abreu hasn’t been knocking pitches out of the park every day, but this is a good matchup for him. Shane Bieber has given up a home run in two of his last three starts, going 8.0 innings in both of them.

Abreu has hit 11 of his 15 home runs this season against righties, which Bieber is. Abreu has hit at least one home run in the last week, so his bat isn’t completely cold. If Bieber stays on the mound too long, watch for him to get caught. - Donnavan Smoot

You can find Donnavan Smoot’s full betting record here.

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