The "Daily Dinger" final standings may all but set, with BetSided's Ben Heisler taking the crown for the regular season, but there's still three games left to be played and plenty of cash to try and win!
For Monday's loaded slate, our team is eyeing the hottest hitter in baseball to continue his torrid pace, another slugger looking to carry his monster September into October, and an All-Star first baseman wrapping up his final regular season series at home in a juicy matchup to go yard.
Best Home Run Picks Today
Matt Olson - Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins
Considering the week that Olson is having, I'm dumbfounded to see his odds this long, even against a tough pitcher to square up in Jesús Luzardo.
Over the last week, nobody in baseball is hotter than Olson, and it's by a considerable margin. In his last 20 plate appearances, he's hitting .500 with a weighted-on-base-average (wOBA) of .729 (league average is .320), and a weighted-runs-created-plus (wRC+) of 383 (league average is 100).
Oh, and the whole "dinger" stat? Yeah, he's got five of them since last Monday.
Luzardo's got fantastic stuff, but he's actually been worse against left-handers this year both in batting average allowed and HR/9. As for Olson, he sports better numbers vs. right-handers, but at this point, he's mashing anyone with an arm throwing a baseball in his direction.
Anthony Santander - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles
As a Blue Jays fan, I know that betting on someone to hit a home run against José Berríos is always going to be a good bet. No pitcher has allowed more hits and earned runs than Berríos this season, and he’s also allowing 1.6 home runs per nine innings. He will be the downfall of the Jays in the postseason.
But tonight, I’m going to back Orioles outfielders, Anthony Santander, to hit a home run off of him. He has 33 home runs on the season, including 10 since September 1st. I think he hits another tonight, and he has a great matchup to do so in Berríos. – Iain MacMillan
Freddie Freeman – Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies
I’m going all in on the matchup in tonight’s Los Angeles Dodgers-Colorado Rockies clash, as Dodgers first baseman Freddie Freeman has destroyed Rockies starter José Ureña in his career.
In 35 career at bats against Ureña, Freeman has 14 hits, four homers and is slashing an absurd .400/.500/.914.
Ureña hasn’t been great this season, pitching to a 5.24 ERA, and he allowed 10 runs (seven earned) in his last start against the Dodgers. At +550, Freeman is a steal to go deep tonight. – Peter Dewey
Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.
Freddie Freeman - Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies
This is more of a fade on José Ureña than anything else, who particularly struggles against lefty hitters, allowing them to hit .337 and slug at a blistering .467.
Freeman enters homer-less in his last 15 games, but with the splits Urena is facing and the still absurd .300 batting average in that span, I’ll take a stab on the slugger to send one deep in this playoff tune up game. - Reed Wallach