Daily Dinger: Best Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Another Perfect Day to Love L.A. for Cubs-Dodgers)
By Ben Heisler
Kyle Schwarber has gone two consecutive games without hitting a home run. Time to sound the alarm?
Guess the BetSided crew was a tad bit late to the game in backing the Phillies' left-handed slugger at the dish to go yard, failing to hit in the last two games.
For Saturday, I'm flying solo, but I have three picks on the board to go deep tonight. Normally in our "Daily Dinger" article, every one of our editors submits a pick in a team effort.
In fairness to the rest of the BetSided team who are competing against me for the top spot in the "Daily Dinger" standings (which you can find here), since I'm submitting three picks, even if more than one hit, I'll just take a victory lap for one of them.
Before I start to count victories that haven't happened yet, let's dive into our picks, with all odds coming from consensus sportsbooks, or specifically noted below from WynnBET Sportsbook.
Top Home Run Picks Today
- Jonathan Schoop (+625) - Caesar's Sportsbook
- Trayce Thompson (+430) - FanDuel Sportsbook
- Seiya Suzuki (+450) - available at WynnBET Sportsbook
Jonathan Schoop (+625) - Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox
Schoop has four career hits in eight at-bats vs. Cueto. Three of those four have left the yard for a slugging percentage of 1.625.
Sometimes, a player just has a pitcher's number. Earlier this year, Cincinnati Reds first baseman Joey Votto had barely gotten the ball out of the yard, but he's destroyed Chicago Cubs pitcher Kyle Hendricks over his career, and sure enough he took him out again.
Meanwhile, Schoop is riding a six-game hit streak; striking out just one time in those games. His hard contact, along with Cueto's likelihood of regression sets up very well this afternoon.
Trayce Thompson (+430) - Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs
If there's a left-hander on the bump, there's a very good chance the Dodgers deploy Thompson into their lineup. His weighted on-base average (wOBA) is .456 vs. left-handed pitching (league average is .320), and his ISO, or isolated power vs. southpaws is .441. For further context, league average ISO is .140; more than three full points higher!
Trayce Thompson saves the day. pic.twitter.com/dNLWgzXNQ6
— Chad Moriyama (@ChadMoriyama) July 5, 2022
Cubs starter Drew Smyly hasn't been terrible with a 3.80 ERA through nine starts this year, but he certainly is prone to the long ball; giving up 1.69 home runs/nine innings.
Oh yeah, and Thompson gets a nice little revenge game opportunity against a former team tonight as well.
Seiya Suzuki (+450) - Chicago Cubs at Los Angeles Dodgers
It's a challenging matchup for the rookie outfielder from Japan against one of the league's best in Kershaw, but Seiya has monster stats vs. left-handed pitching and Kershaw has allowed all five of his home runs allowed to right-handed hitters.
Suzuki's ISO is nearly a full run higher vs. left-handers (.280) than right-handers (.179). He's even better on the road vs. lefties with a .355 ISO and .581 slugging percentage.
Kershaw still gives up a mistake or two during a game, and Suzuki is talented enough to mash one out if he does. The weather is also more conducive to hitters at Dodger Stadium tonight with the wind blowing out near 10 mph.