Daily Dinger: Best Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Back Blue Jays' Bats to Ball Out Thursday)

Toronto Blue Jays teammates George Springer and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. celebrate following a walk-off win earlier this year.
Toronto Blue Jays teammates George Springer and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. celebrate following a walk-off win earlier this year. / Kevin Sousa-USA TODAY Sports

Winning streaks are hard to come by in this year's "Daily Dinger," but the BetSided team is ready to start back from square one with a wide open Thursday slate.

We've got three afternoon matchups to choose from, as well as seven evening matchups to entertain from a betting perspective, all with juicy plus-odds available.

Throughout the 2022 MLB season, the BetSided team of editors breaks down our top home run prop bet picks of the day.

WynnBET Sportsbook offers home run prop betting odds for multiple players across every game, but not every player mentioned is always available. Bettors can still wager on these matchups, as well as bet on multiple unique prop betting opportunities.

Odds shown are consensus if they are not offered at WynnBET. If listed as TBD, it means odds have not been made available as of this writing.

Best Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Thursday, May 5

  • Juan Soto (+400)
  • Ryan McMahon (+425)
  • George Springer (+275)
  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+210)
  • Jorge Polanco (+700)

Juan Soto (+400) - Washington Nationals at Colorado Rockies

I want to fade Antonio Senzatela, who is begging to be tagged at Coors Field.

While it appears the Rockies starter has been solid this season and has limited the long ball, three of his four starts came on the road. In his only start at home, he allowed his only homer of the year in addition to 10 hits and 5 runs.

Senzatela has a 58% fly ball rate and with the balls set to fly at Coors, I'll take the Nats best hitter to go deep. -- Reed Wallach

Ryan McMahon (+425) - Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals

Baseball is at its lowest scoring since the 1980's, and with the BetSided team all bunched up at the top of the "Daily Dinger" leaderboard, I'll target the game with the highest run total by a full two runs at Coors Field!

Ryan McMahon has just two home runs this season, but both have come against right-handed pitching. His slugging percentage is .508 vs. righties compared to just .182 against left-handers.

He's also hitting the ball with authority. According to MLB Statcast data, McMahon ranks in the 95th percentile in average exit velocity, and 88th in barrel percentage.

He's also been unlucky this year, as Statcast also indicates he's had three home run balls that fall under their "mostly gone" metric that didn't leave the yard; giving him a home run to expected home run ratio of -1.2; tied for 11th in baseball.

He's due to club one out against Aaron Sanchez, who's given up seven runs in his first 9.1 innings this season. -- Ben Heisler

George Springer (+275) - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cleveland Guardians

Springer has only gone through two series this season without at least one home run. Today is the start of a four-game set with the Cleveland Guardians and I’m expecting him to start it off strong.

Springer is tied for the 11th most home runs in MLB, and Guardians starter Aaron Civale has given up a home run in each of his last three starts, setting the stage for Springer to take him yard.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+210) - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cleveland Guardians

Vlad Guerrero Jr. already has six home runs this season, and now he is facing Guardians starter Aaron Civale who has struggled mightily out of the gate.

In 2022. Civale enters Thursday’s start with a 10.67 ERA and he’s already allowed three homers in four starts (14.1 innings) this season.

Vlad’s splits are actually better when he is facing righties, and after a tough series against the New York Yankees’ pitching staff, I think this is a spot for the MVP candidate to get back on track. -- Peter Dewey

Jorge Polanco (+700) - Minnesota Twins vs. Baltimore Orioles

The Twins bats have been on fire lately. Since April 23rd, they rank second in the Majors in OPS at .802.

For that reason, I'm going to back Jorge Polanco to hit a diner today. He only has two on the season after hitting 33 last season, so I think we're going to see him hit a third soon.

He'll face Orioles starter Spenser Watkins, whose 2.55 ERA looks promising, but his 5.19 FIP shows that his strong play has been due to the defense behind him.

He's due to get hit hard, and I hope Polanco is one of the guys to get to him today. -- Iain MacMillan

Follow along with our team's updated Daily Dinger record for the season HERE