Daily Dinger: Best Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (It Doesn't Get Any Easier for Paul Goldschmidt on Saturday)

St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Paul Goldschmidt has 21 home runs on the season, and has an slugging percentage of .831 vs. lefties in 2022.
St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Paul Goldschmidt has 21 home runs on the season, and has an slugging percentage of .831 vs. lefties in 2022. / Joe Puetz-USA TODAY Sports
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The mid-July heat wave continues to reign down on the bulk of the country, with plenty of home runs leaving the park on so many of these sticky hot days.

This Saturday is no different, with several east coast games reaching temperatures in the 90's with the wind blowing out, as well as 103 degrees in Kansas City at first pitch between the Royals and visiting Tampa Bay Rays.

Our daily home run picks fell just short on Friday, as both Patrick Wisdom and Starling Marte each got on the board, just not with a home run. Today, we're going back to the stars, highlighting two primer names in the sport to drive one out.

You can also follow along our team's competition for the top spot in the standings all season long HERE.

All sportsbook odds are specifically listed below:

Best Home Run Picks Today

Giancarlo Stanton (+390) - Caesars & PointsBet
Paul Goldschmidt (+265) - FanDuel Sportsbook

Giancarlo Stanton (+390) - New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles

Yes, the All-Star Game MVP is in a slump, hitting .185 this month, but he has still hit eight homers in July.

He is playing in the somewhat hitter-friendly Camden Yards and facing right hander Jordan Lyles this evening. The Orioles starter has allowed the most hits in baseball and Stanton is one of the hardest hitters in the league.

At +390, I'll take a shot at the slugger doing what he does best. -- Reed Wallach


Track Reed's plays at BetStamp HERE!

Paul Goldschmidt (+265) - St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds

Goldy has torched left-handers all season. Mike Minor has been clobbered by right-handers all year long.

If you're not following me on this one, it might be time to sit the next couple plays out.

There is literally no better matchup than Goldschmidt's today. He's hitting .446 vs. lefties with a .831 slugging percentage, a weighted on-base average (wOBA) of .565, and isolated power, or ISO, of .385 vs. southpaws. For context, the league average wOBA is .320 and ISO is .140! That's more than 2.5x the standard barometer of baseball!

Minor is allowing a staggering 2.57 home runs per nine innings this year, with 17.6% of his fly balls in play leaving the yard. Right-handers own a .640 slugging percentage vs. the veteran lefty with a wOBA of 4.30.

Sure, the wind might be blowing in slightly, but Goldschmidt is powerful enough to take a baseball out of the yard regardless of the weather. Don't overthink this one today with Goldschmidt as the "Gold Standard." -- Ben Heisler


Follow all of Ben's betting plays in real-time HERE!