Best March Madness Bets Today for UNC vs. Kansas in National Championship Game

Apr 2, 2022; New Orleans, LA, USA; Kansas Jayhawks guard Ochai Agbaji (30) dribbles the ball against
Apr 2, 2022; New Orleans, LA, USA; Kansas Jayhawks guard Ochai Agbaji (30) dribbles the ball against / Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

We are here. One game left for all the marbles.

No. 1 seed Kansas takes on No. 8 seed North Carolina in the National Championship game on Monday night. After the Tar Heels took down arch rival Duke in one of the most emotional victories in NCAA Tournament history, they will look to win the program's seventh title against a Kansas team who had one of the most impressive offensive performances of the tournament in a blowout win over Villanova.

Who will cut down the nets? Let's break it all down with odds from WynnBET Sportsbook:

Column Record: 121-133 (-20.4 Units)

Kansas (-4) vs. North Carolina

This is a tough game to handicap, two incredibly talented teams that have avenues to beating the other. However, I give a slight edge to the Jayhawks.

I don't really subscribe to the emotional letdown on the Tar Heels side after beating Duke in a barnburner on Saturday night, but the bigger question is around Armando Bacot's ankle. The UNC big man is a terror down low, ranking 21st in offensive rebounding rate and 8th in defensive rebounding rate nationally. Overall, he is the engine behind the elite UNC rebounding rate that is 2nd in the country in DREB%.

If he is hampered at all, the Tar Heels lack of depth may be exposed. First year head coach Hubert Davis plays the 13th lowest amount of bench minutes this season, per KenPom. It's a bit concerning to think of UNC's defense if Bacot is slowed down. The team forces turnovers at the third lowest rate in the country and the Jayhawks have the size to attack the glass with David McCormack and Jalen Wilson. Overall, KU is 36th in offensive rebounding rate.

Davis will likely stick Leaky Black on Ochai Agbaji (who hit 6-of-7 3's in the Final Four win) and Bacot on McCormack, but the Jayhawks are going to have winnable matchups elsewhere with Brady Manek likely checking Jalen Wilson and Remy Martin running the point against presumably R.J. Davis, who has struggled on that end of the floor this season.

Kansas probably won't make seemingly every shot like they did against Villanova, a blistering 1.4 points per possession, but they can get easy offense against a vulnerable UNC transition defense that is middle of the pack in points allowed on breakaway steals, per Haselemetrics. On the other side, UNC likes to run, but KU is much better in defensive transition.

Bacot's injury looms large over this one, but maybe Caleb Love continues to dominate this tournament, averaging 20 points per game thus far. We'll see, as KU limits 3-point tries to the 86th lowest rate in the country and has a strong defensive guard in Dajuan Harris to chase him around.

Overall, this line is right, Duke closed a 4-point favorite against UNC and I see no reason to change the line based on two impressive performances on Saturday. The real difference comes on the court when we see Bacot's mobility, but from a pre-game schematic look, I lean towards KU having enough answers to pull this one out and cut down the nets.

The team's ability to get offense from all over, both in transition and half court, as well as their ability to battle on the glass and limit the perimeter for the Tar Heels will prove enough. I like KU to win the big game after they lost in the title game in New Orleans in 2003 and 2012.

PICK: Kansas TT OVER 77.5, LEAN: Kansas -4

You can find all of Reed's bets HERE!