Best March Madness Bets Today, Sweet 16 Edition

Everyone good? Everyone ready to lock in on the couch or your favorite sports bar again for another weekend of college hoops? I know I am. Let's rock.

The Sweet 16 tips off on Thursday night and by the time Sunday night's set of games ends we will know who is in the Final Four. While the first weekend didn't treat me right, a few edges have popped up in the betting market that I'm eyeing, starting with a handful of games in the first slate of Regional Semifinals matchups.

All odds courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook

Column Record: 113-123-3 (-14.6 units.)

Villanova (-5) vs. Michigan

There is no denying that Michigan has the talent to hang with almost any team in the country. We saw glimpses of what could've been this season with the Wolverines, centered around star big man Hunter Dickinson, who combined for 48 points and 15 rebounds on 69% shooting in the first weekend of the tourney.

However, I'm not sure the team can hold up against Villanova, who may gash Juwan Howard's team in the pick-and-roll. Nova's shot making from all over the floor, top half of the country in both 3-point and 2-point percentage as well as the best free throw mark in the nation, is going to prove too much for Michigan, who has dealt with bouts of inconsistency from the perimeter. Michigan has the 21st lowest turnover rate in the country and are outside the top 100 in 3-point defense, per KenPom.

Dickinson has the ability to dismantle the Villanova frontcourt who lacks a player of his size, but the team's matchup zone may protect them from getting dominated inside.

Villanova's defense makes it difficult to get inside, allowing the 22nd furthest proximity of shots, per Haslemetrics, and I can't trust Michigan's shot making to keep up with Villanova's stable of shooters -- Jay Wright has five guys shoot over 35% from beyond the arc.

Similar to the Ohio State matchup in the Round of 32, I see the Wildcats keeping the Wolverines at arm's length for much of this one and covering the spread.

PICK: Villanova -5

Texas Tech (-1) vs. Duke

I had this matchup circled since Selection Sunday and it's time to bet on it. Duke may have the star studded players, future NBA lottery picks and famed coach Mike Krzyzewski's 'Last Dance,' but they are ill-equipped to handle the Texas Tech defense that ranks first in the nation in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency metric.

While Duke has the size to match the Red Raiders, I am curious if the team will execute properly. We have seen this team look overwhelmed and ill-prepared at times this season when they solely relied on their talent to bail them out (see: matchups against Virginia and Miami and Michigan State). Now, the team's bottom half of the country assist rate, may leave their offense short on answers.

The Red Raiders come from the Big 12, where physicality is commonplace. Meanwhile, the Blue Devils were the most physical team in the ACC and haven't seen a defense like Texas Tech since November. The Red Raiders are going to be a culture shock to the youth of the Blue Devils.

TTU can switch 1-5 and Duke is going to need to move the ball with precision in order to beat the 'no-middle' defense. If the Blue Devils try to win this game through Paolo Banchero isolations, Coach K's final Tournament run is ending in the Sweet 16.

Mark Adams' team struggles protecting the ball, sometimes it appears the team is just eager to get back and defend, but I'm going to trust a team full of seniors to be on their best behavior on Thursday night. Not to mention, Duke is outside the top 300 in turnover rate this season.

The Red Raiders are an elite cutting unit and awesome on the offensive glass, two spots where the Duke defense is vulnerable. The Blue Devils are outside the top 200 in defensive rebounding rate.

Of course, Duke may get a favorable whistle given the physicality of Texas Tech, who ranks 228 in opponent free throw rate, but I think Texas Tech is the better team and it's time for me to get down on Coach K's final loss.

This is my favorite bet of the Tournament as this feels like the perfect storm for Coach K to bow out with his overrated Blue Devils.

PICK: Texas Tech -1 (3U), Texas Tech/Miami ML Parlay (+220)

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