Betsided

Best MLB Bets for Every Game Today (September 21)

By Peter Dewey, Ben Heisler, Donnavan Smoot

Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Madison Bumgarner.
Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Madison Bumgarner. / Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
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The Major League Baseball season is winding down, so if you want to get your betting fix in, now’s the time before the playoffs significantly limit all of our options. 

We have a full 15-games slate on Wednesday, and the BetSided team has put together a pick to make for each game. We also have several game previews on our MLB picks page, but why not give a pick for each game out in one place? 

There are a few intriguing pitching matchups tonight, especially in the Toronto Blue Jays-Philadelphia Phillies game with Zack Wheeler and Kevin Gausman facing off. 

So, without further ado, let’s break down the picks for each game in MLB on Wednesday, Sept. 21: 

Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves Prediction and Best Bet

  • Pick: Braves -1.5 (-132)

You’d be hard pressed to find a team where I was willing to bet on the Nationals at all this season, never mind after they traded Juan Soto to the San Diego Padres. 

Washington is just 2-8 in its last 10 games, has lost three straight and has a horrible negative-214 run differential this season. Even though Paolo Espino has been serviceable this season, the team has yet to get him a win in a single decision. 

The Braves are humming right now, winning five straight, and Bryce Elder has actually been solid in his seven outings this season (six starts), allowing three or fewer runs in each of them. 

Atlanta’s offense simply is too high-powered (No. 2 in OPS this season) for me to back the Nationals without a pitching advantage. Getting Atlanta at a pretty normal price on the run line is the way to go. – Peter Dewey

New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers Prediction and Best Bet

  • Pick: Mets ML (-134)

New York still needs to fight off the Braves for the top spot in the NL East, and it’s been doing a great job. With six straight wins overall and a 4-1 SU record against the Brewers this year, I have to back the Mets tonight. 

Milwaukee is sending Adrian Houser out on the mound today, which hasn’t completely worked out in the Brewers’ favor this season. Houser is 3-4 with a 3.73 ERA at home. His starts have ended before four innings have passed in three of his last five starts. 

The Mets have dominated this matchup and are rolling right now. As much as the Brewers need this game to stay firmly in the playoff race, the Mets are just too good. – Donnavan Smoot

Houston Astros vs. Tampa Bay Rays Prediction and Best Bet

  • Pick: Astros ML (-126)

Chicago Cubs vs. Miami Marlins Prediction and Best Bet

  • Pick: Cubs-Marlins NRFI -164

It’s a solid pitching matchup from South Florida as Marcus Stroman faces left-hander Jesús Luzardo with a very short total of 6.5 runs.

Luzardo’s been up-and-down of late, but his best start of the season came at Wrigley Field vs. these Cubs back in mid-August, going seven shutout innings vs. the North Siders.

Miami also has the best NRFI record of all teams in baseball this year (90-58). While the Cubs have actually been a good YRFI team (74-73), they’ll have issues with Luzardo; limiting opponents to a .148 batting average in the first frame along with a 39% strikeout rate.

Both of these pitchers have been rock-solid in the first inning this year, and while the price is a bit juiced, there’s a reason behind it. – Ben Heisler

Boston Red Sox vs. Cincinnati Reds Prediction and Best Bet

  • Pick: Reds +1.5 (-110)

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction and Best Bet

  • Pick: UNDER 8.5 (-119)

Following the 29-run affair that took place in Philadelphia on Tuesday night, I’m going to the under on Wednesday with two very solid pitchers on the mound.

Gausman has not gotten anywhere near the credit he deserves for a spectacular season in Toronto; leading the American League in Fangraphs’ Wins-Above-Replacement (fWAR). This, despite two tough outings in his last two games, giving up 10 earned runs in his last 12.1 innings.

As for Wheeler, he returns from the 15-day injured list after dealing with a forearm injury, and has been brilliant at home with a 1.95 ERA in 74 innings.

Both pitchers in tonight’s matchup are top 3 in fWAR, as well as top four in Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP). Good pitching beats good hitting, and with the line already on the move, here’s a great chance to get an extra half run. — Ben Heisler

Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles Prediction and Best Bet

  • Pick: Orioles ML (-162)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees Prediction and Best Bet

  • Pick: First Five Innings UNDER 4.5 Runs (-128)

I backed the Yankees on the run line last night in this game, but it came up short due to a late game implosion. 

I have no interest in taking a side here with the Yankees’ run line juiced heavily, but there could be some value on the total, specifically in the first five innings. 

Luis Severino looked great in his rehab starts, and when healthy, he’s been one of New York’s better pitchers this season. That being said, I’m not sure how long the Yankees let him go in his first Major League start in over two months. 

We have a similar situation with Roansy Contreras, who threw just 55 pitches in his last outing and has only pitched past the sixth inning once since being recalled in August. 

However, Contreras has pitched well over that stretch, compiling a 2.43 ERA, and he’s allowed one or fewer runs in four straight starts. With the full game total sitting at eight runs, I think there is value in taking an UNDER in the first five innings before the Pirates’ league worst bullpen takes over this game.  – Peter Dewey

Los Angeles Angels vs. Texas Rangers Prediction and Best Bet

  • Pick: Angels ML (+126)

Pretty simple reasoning for this one, the Rangers have lost five straight starts by Dunning and 20 of his 28 outings this season. 

At plus money, the Angels are worth a shot. – Peter Dewey

Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals Prediction and Best Bet

  • Pick: Royals +1.5 (-138)

Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Prediction and Best Bet

  • Pick: UNDER 7.5 (-106)

San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies Prediction and Best Bet

  • Pick: Giants ML (-136)

St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres Prediction and Best Bet

  • Pick: Cardinals ML (+114)

Seattle Mariners vs. Oakland Athletics Prediction and Best Bet

  • Pick: UNDER 7 (-102)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction and Best Bet

  • Pick:  Dodgers Team Total OVER 5.5 Runs (+100)

Arizona starter Madison Bumgarner has been awful as of late, posting an 8.08 ERA over his last eight starts, and he’s allowed 64 hits 42.1 innings pitched. 

Yikes. 

While’s hes avoided facing the Dodgers on this stretch, I see too much value in getting the Dodgers to have a big game at plus money and score six or more runs. Over the last 15 days, Los Angeles is fifth in baseball in OPS and fourth in runs scored.

Bumgarner hasn’t had a start where he allowed fewer than three runs since July 23, and he’s allowed at least five in seven of his last nine outings. 

Fade him like crazy in this matchup. – Peter Dewey

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