Best MLB Bets for Every Game Today (September 25)
Looking to wager on the loaded Major League Baseball slate on Sunday?
You’ve come to the right place, as we have a pick for every game on the slate, with several breakdowns from the BetSided team on the games they like the most.
Let’s jump into the action for Sept. 25:
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction and Best Bet
- Pick: Braves ML (-126)
This is a pretty simple game for me, even though the Phillies won the first two games of this series.
Kyle Gibson has been downright awful this month, allowing seven, four, one and seven runs in his four starts. He’s getting knocked around in these starts as well, allowing 32 hits in just 17.2 innings pitched.
That’s going to be problematic against a Braves offense that ranks second in OPS, second in home runs and third in runs scored this season. Even though Charlie Morton hasn’t been lights out in 2022, he’s been serviceable, pitching to a 3.57 ERA over the last two months.
The Phillies also rank 22nd in bullpen ERA in 2022, so even if Gibson pitches well, I don’t have a ton of confidence this team will be able to hold a lead. Give me Atlanta to win at what feels like a discounted price. – Peter Dewey
Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles Prediction and Best Bet
- Pick: Orioles +1.5 (-118)
I don’t want to blindly back a trend, but this Orioles team is insane at home on the run line, going 48-28 this season. Baltimore is even better as a home underdog, going 38-13 on the run line in those 51 games.
Baltimore has covered in all three of the games in this series, winning two straight up in the process.
Austin Voth’s season-long numbers don’t look as good as he actually has been for Baltimore, posting a 2.84 ERA across 20 games (15 starts). He’s allowed two or fewer earned runs in seven straight starts heading into this matchup.
Cristian Javier has been great this season as well, posting 12 straight outings with three or fewer runs allowed. There could be a reason to play an UNDER in this game, but after yesterday’s 21-run explosion, I’m going to stay away.
Instead, I like the O’s to do what they do best and keep this one close. – Peter Dewey
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays Prediction and Best Bet
- Pick: First Five Innings UNDER 3.5 (-132)
Even off of bad outings, I think the move here is to back both Sahne McClanahan and Ross Stripling to keep this game low scoring early.
Prior to his rough start against the Philadelphia Phillies, Stripling had made 16 straight starts where he allowed three or fewer runs, pitching to a 2.47 ERA over that stretch. Similarly, McClanahan had pitched to a 2.20 ERA over his previous 16 outings, allowing fewer than three earned runs 13 times.
The Jays have a solid offense but McClanahan is a legit Cy Young candidate. In addition to that, Toronto ranks 11th in baseball in OPS against lefties this season, compared to second against righties. It’s a small drop off, but they clearly don’t hit lefties as well.
3.5 runs seems like a reasonable number for the first five innings, and if both of these guys have their best stuff, this will easily go UNDER. – Peter Dewey
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction and Best Bet
- Pick: Cubs ML (+110)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Prediction and Best Bet
- Pick: UNDER 8.5 (-118)
Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins Prediction and Best Bet
- Pick: Marlins ML (-180)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Minnesota Twins Prediction and Best Bet
- Pick: Angels ML (-110)
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox Prediction and Best Bet
- Pick: UNDER 8 (-115)
Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals Prediction and Best Bet
- Pick: UNDER 7.5 (-105)
A battle of Castillos will take place today when Luis Castillo (2.85 ERA) takes on Max Castillo (2.97 ERA) in this afternoon's showdown.
This will be Max Castillo's third start with the Royals. He has a 2.79 ERA through 9.2 innings pitched. He's already faced the Mariners twice this season when he was still with the Blue Jays, and he has a 2.45 ERA against them in 7.1 innings pitched.
I expect him to have another strong start today, and it goes without saying that Luis Castillo will also pitch well as the Mariners ace.
With neither team ranking in the top 10 in OPS this month, I'm comfortable taking the UNDER 7.5. Let's root for a pitchers duel. – Iain MacMillan
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Prediction and Best Bet
- Pick: Guardians ML (-138)
San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies Prediction and Best Bet
- Pick: OVER 11 (+100)
When I looked at the line for this game, the first thing that jumped out was the total. With a double digit total, the UNDER looked enticing at first glance.
In the 17 games the Padres and Rockies have played this year, eight of them have had a total above 10. The UNDER has hit in five of them. Coming into this series with the Rockies, the Padres were 1-4 against the OVER.
However, I can’t trust either of these pitchers. Mike Clevinger has an ERA over 5.00 when he's on the road and Kyle Freeland has an ERA over 5.00 when he’s at home.
These pitchers are going to give up runs and there’s nothing we can do about it. – Donnavan Smoot
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction and Best Bet
- Pick: Giants ML (+100)
New York Mets vs. Oakland Athletics Prediction and Best Bet
- Pick: Mets -1.5 (-160)
This is a matchup between one of the best offenses in the Majors, and one of the worst. The Mets rank third in OPS in September at .773, and the A's rank 24th at .670.
The fact that Max Scherzer is getting the start for the Mets makes this matchup even more lopsided. He's allowed only two total runs in his last 18 innings pitched. He's getting hot at the right time, and that's bad news for the A's.
The same can't be said for Athletics pitcher, JP Sears. Sure, he pitched five innings of scoreless baseball in his last start, but he still has a 6.88 ERA in the month of September.
The Mets should win this game with ease, and that's the way that I'm going to bet it. – Iain MacMillan
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction and Best Bet
- Pick: Dodgers ML (-156)
Adam Wainwright (3.38 ERA) and Michael Grove (4.66 ERA) will face-off today in a battle of righties. Despite the Cardinals seemingly holding the advantage is starting pitching, I'm going to back the Dodgers today to get the job done.
The Cardinals offense has been slumping this month, despite Friday's 11-0 rout. They rank 18th in the Majors in OPS since September 1st. They also fall off against right-handed pitchers, compared to left-handed pitchers.
Their OPS drops from .808 against lefties, to .731 against righties.
Meanwhile, the Dodgers rank first in OPS against right-handed pitchers this season at .789.
Let's also remember that the Cardinals rank outside the top 10 in bullpen ERA, so even if Adam Wainwright survives his start, the Dodgers should be able to score late in the game. – Iain MacMillan
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Prediction and Best Bet
- Pick: First Five Innings UNDER 4.5 (-130)
The Red Sox simply aren’t a good baseball team right now, but I am intrigued by starter Brayan Bello, who has a 2.61 ERA since the start of August and has struck out 34 batters in 31.0 innings of work.
He has the stuff to deal with some of the Yankees’ bats, and on the other side Nestor Cortes has been New York’s best starter this season. The crafty lefty has 10 straight starts with three or fewer earned runs allowed, and he has a 2.57 ERA and 2.11 FIP since coming off the injured list earlier this month.
Yankees-Red Sox games have a tendency to get crazy, and I don’t trust the awful Boston bullpen, but I think we could see a slow start on Sunday night.
The total in the first five innings is set at 4.5, but with the way Bello and Cortes have been pitching, the UNDER seems like the way to go. – Peter Dewey