Best MLB Bets Today (World Series Rematch Incoming; Back Aaron Nola)

There's a chance that a World Series rematch between the Philadelphia Phillies and Houston Astros could be solidified on Monday night.

Game 7 of the ALCS takes place in Houston, as the Astros are attempting to become the first home team to win a game in that series.

Meanwhile, the Phillies have a 3-2 series lead over the Arizona Diamondbacks with Game 6 taking place at home. The Phillies are a perfect 6-0 in Citizen's Bank Park this postseason.

I have a best bet for each of these games, as well as a prop play to consider tailing on Monday night.

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Rangers vs. Astros Prediction and Pick for ALCS Game 7

Pick: Astros Moneyline

I think this is a spot to back Houston, as the team has for more playoff experience on the roster than Texas.

I'm worried about the Texas Rangers bullpen (3.86 ERA this postseason -- third worst amongst playoff teams) holding up for the second straigt night, as it has been taxed in this series. Not only that, but the team is starting Max Scherzer, who was rocked in Game 3 by Houston.

We already saw that ‘pen blow Game 5, can we really trust the team to hold this Houston team down in back-to-back games?

I don't see it happening, especially since Cristian Javier has a 1.69 ERA this postseason.

Diamondbacks vs. Phillies Prediction and Pick for NLCS Game 6

Pick: Phillies Moneyline

I mentioned the Phillies' perfect record at home in this postseason, but I also think there are more advantages in this game than where the team is playing.

Philly tagged Merrill Kelly in Game 2, leading to a 10-0 win, and the Phils have been the better overall offense in this series by a wide margin.

Plus, there is a key advantage in the bullpens that may not be taken into account enough.

Arizona has a 3.60 bullpen ERA this postseason, the fifth worst mark of any team that reached the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Philly bullpen has held up to the tune of a 2.29 bullpen ERA, the best mark of any remaining team. 

I trust Aaron Nola and the Phils to get things done on Monday.

Best Aaron Nola Prop Bet for NLCS Game 6

Aaron Nola OVER 16.5 Outs Recorded

Nola has thrown 18.2 innings in three playoff starts, clearing this total in every game while allowing just two total runs -- good for a 0.96 ERA.

With Philly leading this series 3-2, the team may be less inclined to have a short hook with Nola if he gets into trouble early. The D-Backs, who have their backs against the wall in this series, may be more likely pull Kelly since they can't afford to lose tonight.

Nola has pitched too well this postseason for me not to back him to at least get through 5.2 innings on Monday night.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's betting record here.