Best MLB First Inning Props for August 29: Bet This Hunter Brown Prop

Happy Thursday to you all! Who else has been sick and tired of the absolute CHAOS in the NRFI market for the past month? Oh, EVERYONE! I get it- me too. There are no words to describe the pit in my stomach that appears when after hours of research and analyzing data sheets, picking a game, and then recommending that game to you as an NRFI wager, only to have a pitcher give up a leadoff home run on the first pitch, or walk 2 batters with 2 outs and then give up a single. You get the point.

As awful as that pit is for me, it does not stop me from finding a way to approach the first inning of these games and find a way to make it profitable. Will I still wager on NRFI's, absolutely! I am also going to utilize a player prop for the first inning that takes run-scoring out of the equation for us! I am going to target Pitches Thrown in the First Inning.

Here is an example of why I am adding this wager to my options for first-inning wagers. Last night's game was Baltimore vs. Los Angeles Dodgers. The starting pitcher matchup had Baltimore's Corbin Burnes vs LA's Walker Buehler. This is a game that on paper, looked like Burnes should have been able to deal with LA in the first inning, given his metrics. Wrong- Ohtani hits a leadoff HR. Burnes still finished with 14 pitches thrown, just under his 15.5 line. Likewise, Walker Beuhler does not have sufficient first-inning metrics, and while he did not give up a run, he still needed 17 pitches to get through the top 3 batters in the Orioles lineup. By targeting the number of pitches in the half of an inning- we take the scoring out of the equation and can target pitchers based on first inning efficiency instead, and at decent odds!

So, despite the NRFI's 5-10 performance yesterday, I am going after some pitchers who are less than efficient in the first inning! The Houston Astros Hunter Brown is exactly the type of pitcher we are looking for today, and his history against the Royals is an added bonus!

MLB Best First Inning Prop Bets For Today

All odds listed are via BetMGM.

Houston Astros Hunter Brown o15.5 Pitches in Bottom of the First Inning -125

Hunter Brown has made 12 home starts this season. In those starts, he has allowed 10 hits, giving up 5 Walks, and has an .222 OPP BA in the first inning. Brown has faced an average of 4.2 batters in the first inning in his home starts and will be facing a Kansas City team that in the last 15 road games, have managed first-inning metrics of a .207 BA, .321wOBA, with 12 hits and 7 Walks. In Brown's only other start against KC this season, he threw 40 pitches in the first inning, recording just two outs, and gave up 9 runs.

Baltimore Orioles Cade Povich o15.5 Pitches Thrown in Bottom of the First Inning -125

Povich will be making his first start against this incredibly potent Dodgers lineup. In his three road starts on the season, Povich has faced 15 batters, averaging 5.0 batters per first inning, giving up two hits, and walking four. He has a first-inning 2.00 WHIP and .379 OPP wOBA. In the last 14 home games the Dodgers have played, they have accumulated a first inning .273 BA, .336 wOBA, and 15 hits. The only other lineup that Povich has faced that is comparable to LA's, would be the NY Yankees. In that start Povich threw a total of 21 pitches.

For a FULL and complete listing of all the MLB games NRFI/YRFI Data be sure to sign up HERE for my DAILY feed! And tune in on Twitter Spaces every Friday @ 3:00 PM EST as I co-host "The Weekend Wagers Show!" You can also find ALL of my MLB picks on JustTheStatsSports.com! 

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.