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Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Picks Today (Bet on Pete Alonso, Teoscar Hernandez)

MLB home run player props and best bets for Thursday, May 16, including how to bet on Pete Alonso and Teoscar Hernandez.

By Reed Wallach

May 13, 2024; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso (20) runs out a
May 13, 2024; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso (20) runs out a / Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports
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It’s a condensed MLB slate on Thursday with a lone afternoon game as teams travel to the next location for its weekend series, but we still have a full serving of home run prop bets. 

I’m targeting Pete Alonso on Thursday against his former teammate Taijuan Walker as well as two other hitters to go deep on the limited slate. Alonso is hitting only .225 but remains one of the most dangerous sluggers in the bigs. 

Find out how I’m attacking the home run prop bet market on Thursday below, with odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. 

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Thursday, May 16

  • Pete Alonso (+480)
  • Connor Joe (+560)
  • Teoscar Hernandez (+400)

Pete Alonso (+480)

Alonso is struggling overall this season, but still has immense power, crushing nine home runs on the season with an 87th percentile barrel percentage. 

The former Home Run Derby champion has hit six home runs against right handed pitching and will hit in a favorable park for hitters against a soft tossing Walker. 

The Phillies starter has an xERA of 5.89, far higher than his actual EA of 4.82 while ranking in the first percentile in barrel percentage this season. He is prone to getting crushed by hard contact and Alonso’s number has drifted too wide on a player of this capability.

Connor Joe (+560)

Joe has earned more and more playing time in the outfield with the Pirates, and he especially thrives against left handed hitting, posting .294/.362/.569 slashes when facing southpaws with three home runs. 

The righty will face Justin Steele, who has struggled to find his punch out pitch after battling injuries early in the year, striking out fewer than 20% of batters with limit movement on his pitches. 

He has hit all of his long balls to left field, which is where the modest wind of seven miles per hour is blowing out at Wrigley Field on Thursday.

Teoscar Hernandez (+400)

Hernandez owns lefty pitchers. Hitting .278 with a .593 slugging percentage with five home runs in 54 at bats against southpaws, Hernandez has teed off on lefties as pitchers are concerned with the likes of Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman, giving him ample opportunities to crush. 

The Dodgers face soft tossing lefty Brent Suter, who has allowed a ton of fly ball contact (nearly 63% of contact has been fly balls) and a middling barrel rate. 

This matchup is a must bet for Hernandez. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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