Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Picks Today (Giancarlo Stanton to Go Deep vs. Marlins)
By Reed Wallach
Who is going deep on Wednesday?
There are some favorable situations for proven sluggers in Jorge Soler and Giancarlo Stanton as well as budding rookies like Jackson Merrill on Wednesday, so much so that we are banking on a home run come Wednesday.
Here’s our favorite home run prop bets on Wednesday’s loaded baseball slate.
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Best Home Run Prop Bets Today
- Jorge Soler (+300)
- Giancarlo Stanton (+300)
- Jackson Merrill (+800)
Jorge Soler (+300)
Soler hasn’t had the same pop to start the year in San Francisco, his barrel rate is a third of what it was last season, but his strikeout rate is down and he still has been able to crush the bal with an expected slugging percentage of nearly .440.
The Giants face the erratic Patrick Corbin, who has allowed 97 home runs in the prior three seasons combined. He has been crushed by power hitters and Soler fits the bill on Wednesday.
He still has strong underlying metrics and should be able to get his bat on a Hendricks low speed fastball or changeup to clear the fence.
Giancarlo Stanton (+300)
Stanton is as dangerous of a hitter as anyone in the big leagues, and he particularly crushes left handed pitching, posting a career slugging percentage of .593.
Further, in the hitter friendly conditions of Yankee Stadium that caters to power hitting right handed hitters, he should be in line to go yard against Ryan Weathers of the Marlins or a porous Miami bullpen.
For what it’s worth, Weathers has struggled to start the year, posting a seventh percentile average exit velocity this season, and few hit it harder than Stanton.
Jackson Merrill (+800)
The Padres rookie has been humming to start his career, hitting .300 in 40 at bats with a home run as well. Not known for his power, he draws a favorable matchup against Kyle Hendricks.
The soft tossing Hendricks has an ERA of 11.74 to start this season and has been getting crushed this season, allowing an expected slugging percentage of .658 on the year.
At a long price, let’s trust Merrill to catch one here. He has cracked the ball in this small sample, 80th percentile in average exit velocity and 72nd percentile in hard-hit percentage.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.