Best MLB NRFI/YRFI and Pitcher Props for August 30 (How to bet Royals vs. Astros)
By Mark Wallis
Happy Friday to you all! Well, August continues to confuse and keep the NRFI's bettors turned every which way but loose! What happens Just as we start pivoting to approach the first inning? The NRFI's went 10-1 yesterday! The Oakland A's were the ONLY team on yesterday's MLB schedule to plate a first-inning run.
While I for one, certainly hope this is a sign of things to come, and we start to get back to a much more predictable and understandable NRFI landscape- I am not falling for the one day trap either! Which is why I have found one game that I really like for an NRFI and three pitchers that I believe will struggle in their half of the inning.
I am going to focus on the Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros game for my NRFI play today. Houston will have Framber Valdez on the mound and he brings a 20-3 NRFI record this season to the bump tonight. Riding the arm of a 85% NRFI pitcher is certainly not a bad place to be!
MLB Best NRFI/YRFI and First Inning Prop Bets For Today
All odds listed are via BetMGM.
Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros NRFI -115
As I stated, Valdez has been an absolute beast in the first inning this season. He has a 10-1 NRFI record in his home games and will be facing a Royals team that 75.76% NRFI on the road this season. Valdez, in those 11 home starts, has racked up 14 Strike Outs in the first inning, helping his first inning WHIP of 0.91.
The Royals will have Seth Lugo pitching in the bottom half of the inning. Lugo has been a solid NRFI producer this season as well, with a 22-4 overall record, and is 11-2 on the road. While Lugo has been prone to first inning baserunners, allowing 12 hits and issuing 4 Walks in his 13 road starts, is it his 45.00% Groundball Rate that has helped him preserve his productive NRFI record.
Colorado Rockies Austin Gomber o15.5 Pitches Thrown in the TOP of the First Inning -120
Gomber has a less-than-stellar NRFI record this season going 13-12 overall and 6-4 at home. He will be facing a Baltimore lineup that is in the middle of a tightly contested AL East Division race and can't afford to have their offense not show up. In Gomber's 10 home starts this season, he has a .310 OPP BA, a .399 OPP wOBA, and a 1.70 WHIP for first-inning stats. He has allowed 13 hits, allowed 4 walks, and is averaging 4.7 Batters Faced in the first inning in his 10 home starts. He has not faced the Orioles yet this season, however, in his last start (against the NY Yankees), he needed 21 pitches to get out of the first inning.
Oakland Athletics JP Sears 015.5 Pitches Thrown in the BOTTOM of the First Inning -125
While JP Sears has been a decent NRFI pitcher, with a 19-7 NRFI record overall and 9-4 on the road, he doesn't have the numbers that inspire a tremendous amount of confidence either. In his 13 road starts this season, Sears has allowed 15 hits, averaged 4.6 Batters/First Inning, and issued 10 Walks. Sears also has a first-inning .306 OPP BA, .405 OPP wOBA, and a 1.92 WHIP, look for Texas to be very patient at the plate and get lots of good looks at Gomber's pitches.
Los Angeles Angels Samuel Aldegheri o15.5 Pitches Thrown in the TOP of the First Inning -130
Aldegheri was called up from Double-A Rocket City to pitch in tonights game agasint the Mariners. In full disclosure, he does not have any meaningful stats for me to break down and research. He has not thrown a pitch in any league above Double-A. I am playing my gut here, and backing the fact that there is such a big difference between the stadium he was walking into two days ago, versus the one that he will walk into tonight. The nerves are bound to be there. How do I know, well let's look at super phenom Paul Skenes in his MLB debut this season after logging seven games at the Triple-A level. Here is a kid that throws 104+ MPH routinely, and it took him 17 pitches to settle in and close out the first inning with two strikeouts. Algheri does not possess the pitch arsenal nor the experience to deal with the transition that quickly. In what is an evaluation process for him, look for the nerves to be the big winner for the first frame.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.