Best MLB NRFI/YRFI August 21: Why Going YRFI Makes Sense today in Diamondbacks vs. Marlins
By Mark Wallis
Happy Wednesday to you all! We had a clean 3-0 sweep with our NRFI and YRFI plays yesterday, which feels even better when you consider that NRFI's are currently 120-139 (46.33%) for the month of August.
With 15 MLB games on the schedule today, we have plenty of options to target for our 6-out entertainment today! With the way that the tide has shifted in this NRFI environment, I have found a game that presents Yes Run First Inning Value.
Let's look at the Arizona Diamondbacks vs Miami Marlins this afternoon.
Miami is sending out Roddery Munoz who is 10-5 YRFI on the season and 5-2 at home. Let's get into ALL the reasons I like this play today.
MLB Best NRFI/YRFI Bets For Today
All odds listed are via Caesars Sportbook.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Miami Marlins YRFI -115
So, Munoz is a run machine for the opposing team in the first inning, as evidenced by his record this season.
When he comes out to pitch in the top of the inning, he will be facing a D-Backs team that is fourth in the MLB for YRFI% at 35.43%. In his seven home starts this season, Munoz has given up nine hits, four of which were home runs, and three walks.
He has accumulated a first inning .300 OPP BA, a .455 wOBA, and a 1.71 WHIP. Those numbers spell R-U-N-S for an Arizona team that in the first inning, over the last 30 days when on the road, has a .356 batting average, a .442 wOBA, and amassed 21 hits (five homers).
Arizona will have Jordan Montgomery on the mound, and while his numbers are not as run conducive as Munoz, they are still relatively high from a league average standpoint.
Montgomery has a first inning .269 OPP BA and a 1.29 WHIP in his seven road starts this season. Miami has not done too poorly offensively in the first inning in the last 30 days when playing at home, posting a .269 BA and a .344 wOBA.
Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Dodgers NRFI -110
Jack Flaherty will be making his fourth start for the Dodgers and has fit very nicely in to the rotation since his trade from the Detroit Tigers. He will be facing a Mariners team that is 65.62% NRFI on the road this season and has plated a first inning run in two of its last three games.
Flaherty will look to keep the Mariners at bay with his 1.13 first inning WHIP, and his low 22.22% Hard hit rate to get him through the inning unscathed.
The Mariners will have Logan Gilbert on the mound in the bottom of the inning. Gilbert will take his impressive NRFI record of 22-3 and 11-2 on the road to face this Dodgers team that is 7-3 NRFI in its last 10 games.
In Gilbert's 13 road starts this season, he has recorded a first inning .208 OPP BA and a 1.08 WHIP.
Milwaukee Brewers vs St Lous Cardinals YRFI +106
St.Louis will have Kyle Gibson on the mound when this game gets underway. Gibson is 5-6 YRFI at home this season and will be facing a Brewers team that is 4-6 YRFI in their last 10 games. Gibson's allowance of first innings runs, in his home starts, is understandable as he faces an average of 4.8 batter in the top of the inning.
In those 11 starts, he has allowed 17 hits (two HR's), with a .370 OPP BA and a 2.00 WHIP.
Milwaukee will have Tobias Myers on the mound in the bottom of the inning. Myers is 4-5 YRFI in his nine road starts this season and 7-10 overall. In those nine starts, Myers has posted a first inning .258 OPP BA, a .391 wOBA, and a 1.33 WHIP. He has also allowed eight hits, three of which were home runs.
For a FULL and complete listing of all the MLB games NRFI/YRFI Data be sure to sign up HERE for my DAILY feed! And tune in on Twitter Spaces every Friday @ 3:00 PM EST as I co-host "The Weekend Wagers Show!" You can also find ALL of my MLB picks on JustTheStatsSports.com!
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.