Best MLB NRFI/YRFI August 9: How to bet the 'Windy City Showdown' Between Chicago White Sox vs Chicago Cubs Game!
By Mark Wallis
Happy Friday to you all! Well, August has not been a very friendly NRFI month at all to start. And thanks to yesterdays 2-8 NRFI record, those numbers did not improve at all. How bad was yesterday? Well, on days with at least 10 games on the schedule, the 20% NRFI rate was the lowest of the season, so far. It slightly edged out the 3-11 record NRFI's (21.43%) had on June 25th.
So why are we not just wagering on the Yes Run First Innings instead? Well, because overall for August NRFI's are 43-56 (43.43%), granted during the day (Games with start times before 6:00 local time) this month, NRFI's are 11-17 (39.29%), while at night they are 32-39 (45.07%). I am not overly surprised as the NRFI% rate has been above 56% for the first half of the season. With the month of May having the highest NRFI% at 62.3. We were due for a little regression.
Regression aside, there are some games on today's schedule that leap off the page, demanding our NRFI attention. One of those games is the Windy City Showdown between Chicago's Cubs and the White Sox. Between starting pitchers Garrett Crochet (CWS) and Jameson Taillon (CHC) they are a combined 34-8 NRFI this season. A perfect spot to get those NRFI numbers turned around!
Chicago Cubs vs Chicago White Sox NRFI -125
Garrett Crochet continues to be one of just a few bright spots for the White Sox this season. Crochet is 20-3 NRFI on the year and is 12-1 at home. He will be going against a Cubs team that is 7-3 NRFI in their last 10 games and are 77.59% NRFI on the road (if we can really consider this an "away" game for the Cubs!). In his 13 home starts, Crochet has logged a first inning .133 OPP BA and a 0.46 WHIP.
Jameson Taillon will bring his 14-5 NRFI record to the mound in the bottom half of the inning. Taillon is 7-2 NRFI on the road and will be looking to improve that record against a White Sox team that is 80.70% NRFI at home this season. In those road starts, he has logged a first inning .235 OPP BA and a 1.00 WHIP.
San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins NRFI -115
The Marlins will send Edward Cabrera to the mound tonight to face the Padres. Cabrera has a perfect 6-0 NRFI record at home this season and is 10-1 overall. His success is easy to understand when looking at the first inning stats he has accumulated in those six starts. Cabrera has a first inning .063 OPP BA and a 0.67 WHIP. He will be facing a Padre team that is 9-1 NRFI in their last 10 games.
The Padres will send Martin Perez out to face the Marlins in the bottom half of the inning. Perez will be facing a Marlins team that is 76.67% NRFI at home this year. In his seven road starts for teams this season, Perez has logged a first inning .192 OPP BA and a 0.86 WHIP.
New York Mets vs Seattle Mariners NRFI -120
The Mariners will have Bryce Miller on the mound when they welcome the Mets tonight for a 3-game series this weekend. Miller has been a NRFI machine, going 18-4 overall this season and is 11-1 at home. He will be throwing to a Mets team that is 71.93% NRFI on the road this year and are 8-2 in their last 10 games. Miller's success in the first inning has helped him log a .171 OPP BA and a 0.83 WHIP.
The Mets will have Jose Quintana on the bump in the bottom half of the inning. Quintana is 14-8 NRFI on the season and is 8-3 on the road. He will face a Mariners team that is 80.00% NRFI at home this year. Quintana has posted a first inning .111 OPP BA and a 1.00 WHIP in his 11 road starts.
3- Team No Run First Inning Parlay +133
- MIN Twins- 67.92% NRFI Probability Score - 6-4 NRFI in last 10 games
- LA Angels - 77.78% NRFI Probability Score - 7-3 NRFI in last 10 games
- NY Mets -71.93% NRFI Probability Score - 8-2 NRFI in last 10 games
Odds courtesy of Caesar Sportsbook
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