Best MLB NRFI/YRFI for August 28: Why the Mets vs Diamondbacks has excellent betting value tonight
By Mark Wallis
Happy Wednesday to you all! We are halfway through the week and saw a nice little bump from the NRFI's last night. Overall, NRFI's went 9-5 (64.29%) on the night, the second highest NRFI% in the last nine days. I am hopeful that this month-long dip in the NRFI rate is starting to swing to the positive side again soon!
That being said, we have 15 full games on the MLB slate for today. The Texas Rangers vs Chicago White Sox game scheduled for last night will resume play this afternoon. I am a little salty over HOW the game was allowed to start in the first place, as it was one of my article plays yesterday. Suffice to say, that after only four pitches were thrown in the top of the first, the rain came pouring down and the game was called. Thus a voided ticket.
Ok, rant is all done! We move on and scour today's slate for opportunities, and I believe I have found an excellent spot for us to target that has a lot of value! The New York Mets vs Arizona Diamondbacks game will feature a wiley NRFI veteran in NY's Luis Severino, facing off with Eduardo Rodriguez, who has a perfect NRFI record and will be making his fourth start for the D'backs since coming off the IL.
MLB Best NRFI/YRFI Bets For Today
All odds listed are via Caesars Sportbook.
New York Mets vs Arizona Diamondbacks NRFI -110
Rodriguez will get just his second home start for Arizona tonight against the Mets. He has been inactive this season, after being acquired from Detroit, with a shoulder injury. Since his return, he has been dominant in the first inning. He has a perfect 3-0 NRFI record, 1-0 at home, and will be facing a Mets team that has struggled to plate first-inning runs all season. New York is 72.31% NRFI on the road for the year and is 7-3 NRFI in their last 10 games.
Luis Severino will pitch in the bottom half of the inning for the Mets. He has a 23-2 NRFI record this season and is a perfect 12-0 on the road. His first-inning stats in those 12 starts are nothing short of impressive: a .143 OPP BA, 0.67 WHIP, 15 K's, and a 48.15% Groundball Rate. He will have his work cut out for him tonight against Arizona, however, those are the exact kind of numbers that should be able to keep the D'backs bats at bay, at least for the first frame!
Atlanta Braves vs Minnesota Twins NRFI -120
Minnesota will have David Festa on the mound, and he has been a perfect 7-0 NRFI this season, including 3-0 at home. The Braves team that will face him is 79.41% NRFI on the road this season and has 17 first-innings over the last 30 days when playing on the road. That plays well into Festa's 46.15% first-inning K% in his home starts. Look for him to improve on his first inning .083 OPP BA and 0.55 WHIP tonight against Atlanta.
Atlanta will have Chris Sale on the mound in the bottom half of the first frame. Sale will be making his 14th road start this season and is 8-5 NRFI on the road, and 15-9 overall. Sale will look to his 41.18% first inning Groundball Rate and his 29.82% first-inning K Rate to get him through the top of the Twins order efficiently and more importantly for our wager, without allowing a run. The Twins have 21 Strikeouts in the first inning over the last 30 days when playing at home, the most of any home team playing today over the same span.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.