Best MLB NRFI/YRFI for June 10 (Why You Should Back Pepiot Today)
By Mark Wallis
Happy Monday to you all! With seven MLB games on the schedule for us tonight, I have found the two games that should help us improve on the 4-2 record from this weekend.
Ryan Pepiot will be facing the Baltimore Orioles in the early game tonight, and despite the record he has for NRFI at home, I really like this spot for him to shut down the Orioles in the first inning tonight. Let me explain in a little more detail as we jump into the picks!
When the Orioles play on the road, they have been atrocious when it comes to first-inning run production! This Orioles team has only managed to score a run on the road, in the first inning, just once all season! That translates to a 30-1 NRFI road record for the Orioles this season! Let me explain in a little more detail as we jump into the picks!
MLB Best NRFI/YRFI Bets For Today
All odds listed are via Caesars Sportbook.
Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays NRFI (-145)
Ryan Pepiot will be taking the mound to get things started against the Orioles in Tamp Bay tonight. Pepiot is 6-4 NRFI overall, and 4-3 NRFI at home this season. Despite that record, his underlying metrics line up very nicely against a Baltimore team that continues to struggle with first inning run production on the road. Pepiot is facing an average of 4.4 batters in the first inning in his seven home starts and has held the opposing teams to a .192 Batting Average in those first innings. The Orioles are 8-2 NRFI in their last 10 games and are 96.77% NRFI on the road this season.
Baltimore will have Corbin Burnes on the mound in the bottom half of the first inning. Burnes has been pitching well lately, and his 8-5 NRFI overall record looks a lot better when we look at his NRFI record in away games is 4-1. Burnes also is holding the opposing bats quiet in the first inning with a .167 Batting Average and a minuscule 0.80 first-inning WHIP. In his five road starts, he is facing an average of 3.8 batters in the first inning.
Chicago White Sox vs Seattle Mariners NRFI (-145)
Logan Gilbert will be on the bump when this game starts tonight in Seattle. Gilbert has been a NRFI machine this season going 11-2 overall and a perfect 5-0 NRFI at home this season. Gilbert's opposing batting average of .063 in the first inning, translates to an equally low wOBA of .079 in the first inning for the opposing teams he has faced. In his five home starts, he has faced a total of 16 batters and has logged 10 first inning strikeouts for a 62.5% K% rate.
The Sox will have Erick Fedde on the hill to start the bottom half of the inning. Fedde's first inning stats show that while opposing teams have sent 32 batters to the plate to face Fedde on the road, he has allowed nine hits, and struck out nine as well for a 28.13% K% rate in the first inning. He will look to lower his 1.57 first inning WHIP tonight against a Mariner team that is 75.00% NRFI at home this season.
There are also books that will allow you to target specific teams in the first inning. So I will include a three-team parlay that can be put together at BetMGM or on DraftKings. Listed next to the teams are the TEAM SPECIFIC probability scores that my model gives for the likelihood of NRFI, and the team's Last 10 game NRFI record.
3- Team No Run First Inning Parlay +135
- COL Rockies - 75.68% NRFI Probability Score - 7-3 NRFI in last 10 games
- NY Yankees - 65.71% NRFI Probability Score - 7-3 NRFI in last 10 games
- SD Padres - 77.14% NRFI Probability Score - 6-4 NRFI in last 10 games
For a complete daily NRFI/YRFI team listing, be sure to follow me on Twitter!
Twitter/X: @BettorDaysAhead
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.