Best MLB NRFI/YRFI July 10: How to Bet Royals vs. Cardinals Game 2 on Wednesday
By Mark Wallis
Happy Wednesday to you all! What a great night we had last night -- well, almost!
Coming off a full sweep on Monday night, we went 2-1 last night with a weather related void, bringing this weeks record to 5-1. There are 16 MLB games scheduled for today, which allows us to be very selective on where we target.
One of the games that were postponed last night, due to weather, was between the Kansas City Royals and the St. Louis Cardinals.
Now, I had that game selected as one of the three I was targeting in yesterday's article. In Game 1 of the make-up double header today, the same starters are slated to go, Andre Pallante for the Cards and Alec Marsh for the Royals.
Nothing has changed for me regarding that play, it is just not in today's top three plays because of the better matchups on the schedule.
More specifically, Game 2 of this doubleheader is a game that has really gotten my attention. Here's a breakdown of that matchup and more on Wednesday.
MLB Best NRFI/YRFI Bets For Today
All odds listed are via Caesars Sportbook.
Kansas City Royals vs St. Louis Cardinals Game 2 NRFI -130
As I mentioned, do I like Game 1 of this double header today? Yes.
Do I like Game 2 more? Absolutely! First, we have Sonny Gray taking the mound for the Cards in the top of the first inning.
Gray has a perfect 9-0 NRFI record in his home starts and is 13-3 overall this season. The Royals are 79.07% NRFI on the road this season and will have to contend with Gray's impressive first inning stat lines. In the first inning, Gray's .133 OPP BA and 0.67 WHIP will definitely present a challenge for any first inning offense the Royals hope to muster.
Kansas City will counter with Michael Wacha in the bottom half of the inning. Wacha has been just about as dominant in the first inning as Gray has been.
Wacha is 12-3 NRFI overall this season and is 7-1 on the road. The Cards are 80.49% NRFI at home this season and will struggle to generate any first inning offense against Wacha tonight. Looking at Wacha's first inning performance will help explain why. In the first inning, Wacha has a .111 OPP BA and a 0.50 WHIP.
Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers NRFI -140
When Cleveland's Tanner Bibee and Detroit's Reese Olson pitch in their respective halves of the first inning, we will have a collective NRFI record of 29-6.
That translates to an 82.9% NRFI performance.
Olson has been the more dominate of the two, with a perect 17-0 NRFI overall record this season. Looking a this first inning stats, it is easy to understand why.
Olson has a .087 first inning OPP BA, which is the lowest OPP BA of any pitcher on today's slate. He also comes into this with a first inning WHIP of 0.57, which should help him against the Guardians who are 73.47% NRFI on the road this season.
Bibee has been a solid NRFI performer in his own right, bringing a 12-6 overall record, which includes a 6-3 road NRFI record. Bibee does have a 2.06 OPP BA in the first, however, his 0.78 first inning WHIP is what I believe is going to carry him through tonight's first inning.
Detroit is 74.42% NRFI at home this season, and 7-3 NRFI in its last 10 games.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers NRFI -105
When Tobias Myers takes the mound for the Brewers in the top half of the inning, he will be looking to improve upon his mediocre NRFI record. Myers is 6-5 NRFI overall this season and is 2-2 at home.
Why do I like this spot for him with those stats? Well, he will be facing a Pirates team that is 80.00% NRFI on the road and have posted scoreless first innings in their last 10 games.
Myers first inning metrics support this spot for him as well, he has a .211 OPP BA and a 1.20 WHIP. The Pirates have a 30-day first inning batting average of .196 when playing on the road.
The Pirates will have Marin Perez pitching in the bottom half of the inning.
Perez has had some difficulties as he is 1-4 overall this season. However, the first inning is where he shines and has been a NRFI machine!
He is 11-2 overall NRFI on the season and is 6-0 on the road. The Brewers team he will face is 80.49% NRFI at home and 8-2 NRFI in their last 10 games.
Perez has first inning stats that jump out as well. His .100 OPP BA and 0.50 WHIP should help him get through the first inning quietly.
3- Team No Run First Inning Parlay +114
- ATL Braves - 81.82% NRFI Probability Score - 6-4 NRFI in last 10 games
- SEA Mariners- 71.11% NRFI Probability Score - 9-1 NRFI in last 10 games
- OAK Athletics -78.26% NRFI Probability Score - 7-3 NRFI in last 10 games
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Twitter/X: @BettorDaysAhead
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.